Posts

Giant Hail Forecast in the Northwest

Image
NWS Storm Prediction Center is forecasting a significant chance of hail 2" or larger in diameter in the hatched area Wednesday afternoon or evening.  As hail of this size is unusual in the Northwest, here are some safety suggestions: At the first sign of a thunderstorm, such as thunder, bring in the kids. Large hail can cause injuries.  Put your car in the garage when it is not in use.  Put indoors lawn furniture and other items that could be damaged. I'lll update tomorrow. 

Breaking News: FEMA to Be "Eliminated"?

Image
Wow, if true . I'm not convinced.  That stipulated: We've discussed FEMA many times. The agency is a money-spewing political and management mess that does very little to help people affected by natural disasters unless they are located in the correct "blue" areas. My opinion is that FEMA's staff, mission and budget should be slashed. The agency should become a disaster logistics and federal grant coordinating agency -- only. I discuss the matter on Full Measure   here .  The Hill It is possible President Trump and Secretary Noem have concluded the current FEMA is beyond hope.  My #2 choice is the complete elimination of FEMA, followed soon by a new agency based on the above staffed with fresh people and a new mandate. 

Stock Photography For the Season

Image
Tornado sirens, tornado shelters, wildfires, rural America, tornado damage, aviation navigation, agriculture, and photographs of a wide variety of other subjects are all available in my collection.  You will find my collection of weather and nature-related photographs, ready for licensing , here .  I hope you will take a look. 

Some Thoughts to Start the Week

Here are some thoughts to start the week.... Netflix Joplin Documentary. We don't have NETFLIX and I have not had a chance to see the documentary on the Joplin Tornado. Based on descriptions provided by friends, there appears to be at least one major error of fact in the program, so don't believe everything you watch. If you want to read what really happened -- and what went so horribly wrong -- I wrote a book on that horrible storm.  The paper copies of the book sold out very quickly. We decided to price the ebook very inexpensively so many could read it. You will find the   When the Sirens Were Silent  here and the Amazon Cloud Reader (free, top of page) so you can read it in the same page layout as if you were reading the paper book. The cost is just $2.99. When/if I watch the documentary, I will write a review.  National Disaster Review Board. Of the comments on the piece at Roger's blog , I was surprised by the number of people who didn't understand what the N...

Today's Tornado Risk - Updated 3:55pm

Image
A tornado watch has been issued for the area outlined in red until 11pm. Thunderstorms are developing west of Memphis. If you live in or near this area, please keep up on the latest weather information! I will provide updates on Twitter/X  at @usweatherexpert. --- original posting ---  The area in brown has a significant risk of a few tornadoes. Please keep up on the weather in these areas later today. 

Sunday Feature: Get Paid to Move to Neodesha

Image
Photo taken outside of Neodesha The City of Neodesha, in southeast Kansas, is paying people -- generously -- who want to move there. An overview: Up to $15,000 student loan repayment. 100% Kansas income tax waiver through 2026. College scholarship incentive up to $25,000. One year pass to Neodesha Splash Zone.  Six month subscription to local newspaper.  USD 461 school activities pass.  Two tickets to Neodesha Chamber of Commerce's annual auction and dinner.  The Wichita Eagle  has a story here .  Neodesha  (pronounced nee-oh-duh-shay, if you’re not familiar) provides details    here .  Kathleen and I love living in Kansas and Neodesha is in a particularly pretty area. If you are interested in a change, I recommend checking this out. 

Seasonal Weather Outlooks are NOT Accurate

Image
Yesterday, with great fanfare, the media brought the NOAA spring weather outlooks to everyone's attention. One place you didn't find them? Here.  While long range weather outlooks generate lots  of "clicks," I refuse to post them not only because their skill is -- at best -- inconsistent; but because they are often terribly wrong. This blog is about forecasting what is the best weather science can produce.  Let's look at the forecast for this past winter and what actually happened. Look at the very top: the "skill" of the forecasts is negative. Meaning, overall, you would have been better off with a forecast the opposite  of what was forecast.  Two years ago, these same long range forecast product called for drier than normal conditions in California when they actually had one of the wettest winters in their history! I have not been able to find any seasonal forecaster with consistent skill. So, that is why I don't post them.  If the NWS is looking f...