"Error on the Side of 'Safety'"

Last week, I criticized journalism is general, and ABC News in particular, about lazy journalism when it comes to tornadoes. I wrote, pertaining to their inaccurate reporting there was "no warning" of the Alabama pre-dawn tornadoes,

This seems to confirm my suspicion that there is a key on journalists' word processors that says "there was no warning" and they simply press that key every time they have to do a story about storms.

There seems to be another group that suffers from either lack of knowledge about the rapid progress we have made in the field of storm warnings, inertia, or timidity: Emergency managers.

As I have been gathering data from around the nation for the purpose of reviewing last year's tornado season, it seems emergency managers have a mantra:

Nick Crossley, director of emergency management and homeland security for Johnson County, said the warnings on Saturday night were necessary throughout the entire county.

“We erred on the side of caution,” Crossley said. “It’s much better to sound the sirens and warn people than not to sound the sirens.”

Crossley was responding to criticism about sounding the sirens -- twice in one evening -- in areas that were never under a warning.

Or, take a look at this video from KMOV-TV, St. Louis, after I criticized St. Louis County for sounding sirens in areas more than 25 miles (with the tornado moving away) from the tornado. They have the capability to sound sirens selectively (i.e., NWS polygons) if they wish to do so.

He said, "I'd rather be safe than sorry" and that we "never know" which way a storm is moving.

Now, take a look at this story from WFIE-TV in Indiana from January 18th (updated Jan. 25th) that came to my attention yesterday:

The National Weather Service allows each county to decide which sirens to set off during a storm. 

14 News found some Tri-State counties are now choosing this option, while others say their policies won't change.

40 sirens sounded Tuesday morning, getting attention all across Vanderburgh County for a warning that was only issued for the northern section.

Meteorologists clarified on Twitter that the warning did not include Evansville, even though the sirens were going off.

"Our policy is always to sound them off through the whole county," said Vanderburgh County EMA director Sherman Greer.

Greer says it's a policy that errs on the side of safety. [emphasis mine]

"Meteorology and the weather and everything is not an exact science," Greer pointed out.

That is why he's not comfortable with switching to that new option, from the National Weather Service, that would allow him to set off only those sirens located in the affected part of the county.

"If something strays a little bit further than that area, then we've got a problem."

"I think it's a good idea. I'm not convinced yet that they are quite as precise as we would like to see it," said Henderson EMA Director Larry Koerber.

Across the river in Henderson, Koerber also fires all 32 of his sirens, no matter where the storm is in the county.

"We don't want to miss something and say 'Well,if the path is there in the southern part of the county' and sure enough it makes a left turn and winds up in the middle of Henderson," Koerber says.

We keep hearing from emergency managers; and there are many more examples I can cite:

Error on the side of side of safety.

Activating sirens over and over and over in areas where there is no threat (deliberately sounding them in Evansville even though the tornado warning did not include Evansville). Is that really erring on the side of safety?

Or, is it really erring on the side of protecting the emergency manager from second guessing (i.e., fear of criticism if a tornado occurs without the sirens going off)? 

There is also the complementary comment that meteorologists "don't know" where the tornadoes are and/or don't know where they are going to go. This was true 40 years ago during the early years of trying to warn people of tornadoes. We weren't very good at it then. "Better safe than sorry" made sense in the 60's and 70's and, in some areas with poor radar coverage, even the 80's. 

Today: This deliberate and geographically exaggerated overwarning makes no sense in an era of Doppler and Dual-Polarization radars, debris balls, GPS storm reports, etc., etc. As I previously reported on the blog, 99+% of the tornado fatalities in 2011 occurred in areas that were under both a tornado watch and tornado warning before the fatality occurred. Meteorology does know where the storms are going to be.

So, here is the problem:  The evidence is rapidly accumulating that "erring on the side of safety" is doing nothing but training people to ignore warning sirens. 

I mentioned last week that I'm working on a project that pertains to last year's tornadoes and I originally wanted to get into this subject when I was farther along. But, the news report from Evansville tweaked my conscience. 

It is long past time to stop warning areas tens of miles away from the tornado threat. The polygon warnings, while not perfect, build in enough margin of safety to allow sirens to be sounded in and along the polygon. 

Heck, build in a 1-2 mile buffer (easy to do with today's technology). But stop sounding sirens in areas tens of miles away from any threat!

Between the media inaccurately yet constantly telling people how bad the warnings are and emergency managers sounding the sirens 20 miles behind the tornado it is almost a wonder that anyone pays attention. But, with good television and radio reporting, many are able to intelligently respond and save their lives in spite of these handicaps. But, there is no reason for an environment where making the correct decision has to be so hard.

Based on the preliminary research I have done pertaining to 2011, there is no question that complacency cost lives. I'll have more when I am finished with the work. 

There is still time in many jurisdictions to implement a new policy in time for the 2012 tornado season. Great started, please. Otherwise, I fear we are going to more lose precious lives to complacency. 

7:50am Storm Update

Here is the overview of the watches and warnings at the moment:

Yellow = tornado watch. Orange = blizzard warning. Pink = blizzard warning. Dark turquoise = winter storm watch. Blue = winter weather advisory.

Here is AccuWeather's forecast of additional snow:

Here is the AccuWeather regional radar at 7:44am:

We have welcome puddles in the back yard in Wichita with more badly-needed rain on the way.

Very heavy snow is still forecast to fall as the "dry" area between the thunderstorms in Kansas and the snow in Colorado "fills in."  You can see that starting to occur with the mixed precipitation now over New Mexico that is growing and starting to move northeast.

Please come back to the blog mid-morning for a thought-provoking story about storm warnings.

Potential for Weak Tornadoes During the Rest of the Night?

The NWS Storm Prediction Center seems to think so. They just released this:

There are referring to the stronger storms that I noted (below) that, until recently, have just been causing rain and hail. SPC notes that some of the storms are showing weak (not yet tornadic rotation).

Above is AccuWeather regional radar at 12:23am. Click to enlarge.

So, make sure your weather radio is working if you live in these areas. This is not at all the type of situation where a Joplin- or Greensburg-type tornado could occur.  But, all tornadoes are dangerous if you are in the path.

Finally, in the Wichita area (below) at 12:28 am, there is still a severe thunderstorm watch for western Sedgwick Co. and hail may fall but nothing more serious than that at this time.

I'm going back to sleep. 

Midnight Update

AccuWeather Regional Radar at 11:44pm CST shows the heavy snow continuing over Colorado. The town of Callan has received 14.6" with snow still falling.

The large area of thunderstorms from Kansas to between Amarillo and Lubbock is moving northeast as new thundershowers develop between Enid and Wichita Falls. All of this is badly needed rain, with some hail.

Precipitation amounts should be substantial in the central Plains before this is all over.

Speaking of hail, there is a storm with hail just WSW of Wichita that has a history of producing large hail at 11:50pm. It will be moving into western Sedgwick Co. after midnight.

I've been watching this storm on dual-polarization radar and I'll have more about that on the blog Sunday.

Still looks like very heavy snow will fall in Nebraska. See posting below.

One More Update

Lots going on that is important.

Courtesy of Dr. Ryan Maue, here is the 6pm snow cover this evening:

And, the forecast snow cover at 6am Sunday, scale at right. There is a small spot of 20" along I-80 in south central Nebraska! Please take these forecasts into account if you are planning travel!

click to enlarge

Immediately below is the 10:03pm radar showing a thunderstorm with large hail moving ENE across northern Oklahoma toward southern Kansas.

Finally, there are at least a half dozen severe thunderstorm warnings for large hail farther southwest:

The above AccuWeather regional radar shows the extent of the thunderstorms that are moving ENE to NE.
Below, is the summary of watches and warnings (see below for color code) at 10:03pm. The amber colors in west Texas and Oklahoma are severe thunderstorm warnings.

Last update of the night -- honest this time!!

Last Update for the Night

Here is the AccuWeather regional radar for 9:24pm CST:

And, here is the forecast radar at 3am:

click to enlarge

This will be my last update of the night. I expect to do a storm update tomorrow morning.

Please come back to the blog around 9am for a very important report about storm siren policy.

Potential Hail Storms Developing in Texas Panhandle at 7:51pm

The storms are moving northeast at 35 mph. The counties outlined in yellow are under the severe thunderstorm watch till 3am.

Latest Weather Update

The high-resolution model from the National Weather Service shows 8 to 12" of snow by Colorado sunrise (6am MST):

The swipe from Lubbock to Wichita that shows up as snow is the model sensing hail. Yes, there could be hail overnight. Below is the forecast radar for 1am CDT:

The current (7:30pm CST) AccuWeather winterized regional radar shows thunderstorms developing in the Texas Panhandle that could cause large hail overnight as they move northeast.

 The strongest storms right now are the ones just west of Amarillo.

UPDATE: 7:40PM. National Weather Service has issued a severe thunderstorm watch for large hail and damaging winds until 3am. 

4:20pm Storm Update

Here are the latest (4:15pm) watches and warnings from the NWS:

Orange = blizzard warning. Pink = winter storm warning. Deep turquoise = winter storm watch. Purple = winter weather advisory.

AccuWeather Regional radar at 4:19 shows the storm just getting started (radar is winterized).

click to enlarge any graphic

Here is the updated forecast (non-winterized) radar valid at 10pm this evening:

Strong thunderstorms are forecast to be occurring in the Oklahoma and Texas Panhandles at this time. Snow, often heavy, is predicted to be falling in Colorado.

Under Attack for Getting the Facts CORRECT

I wasn't familiar with a web site called "Think Progress" until it reproduced attacks on several eminently qualified meteorologists who happened to be friends of mine. The subject was -- of course -- global warming.

Knowing how I would feel in a similar situation, I posted several comments defending them. I also posted more than a dozen other comments answering questions from (what now to appear to be) regular readers. I was shocked by the amount of vitriol and name-calling.

It was brought to my attention yesterday evening that they are at it again. They called out meteorologist Mark Johnson for accurately stating that the earth hasn't warmed for 15 years. This posting brought out the same vitriolic commenters who apparently didn't learn anything when I engaged with them.

Here are the facts. While ocean heat content is the more important metric, it has only been accurately available since the ARGOS probes were deployed eight years ago.

Atmospheric temperatures are measured in two ways: By ground based sensors (HADCRUT below) and by satellite sensing of the lower troposphere (UAH). Both show that atmospheric temperatures peaked in 1998.

HADCRUT data from Great Britain's Hadley Center since 1979 so as
to match the satellite data below. Note: Hadley Center is
strongly pro-global warming. 

Below is the satellite data that first became available in 1979.

UPDATE: 4:30PM Thursday. A commenter pointed out that the January data is out, so I have added that chart below. The cooling continues to the point that world temperatures at the moment are "below normal." One month does not mean very much but the trend certainly is unexpected in the Al Gore/IPCC branch of climate science. Thanks, commenter KuhnKat.

RESUME ORIGINAL POSTING: I describe earth's temperatures as peaking in 1998 and flat to down since.  Seems pretty straightforward to me.

Now, if you go back to the data since the Little Ice Age (mid-19th Century), it looks like more of a plateau in recent years. But, note, the current trend is clearly down. Will it continue? No one knows.

My point is that Think Progress was criticizing a statement that was indisputably correct!

One gets the feeling that global warming is a pseudo-religion over at Think Progress. Facts, no matter how strong, don't influence their beliefs.

I've said before that personal attacks, name calling, tampering with temperature data, etc., etc., is hardly the behavior of people confident in their position or that the scientific process will win out.

The Storm Begins

Here are experimental radar forecasts that show the development of the winter storm and the potential thunderstorms.

The graphic below is valid at 6pm CST:

The forecast below (courtesy of the NWS) is valid at 10pm this evening:

The above forecasts do not differentiate rain versus snow. From a separate forecast model (hat tip: Dr. Ryan Maue) is the rain versus snow for 6pm this evening:

11:59pm this evening:

6am Friday morning:

This set of graphics should give you a good idea of the timing of the storm.

While the snowfall forecast below still looks good, some preliminary guidance from the new model runs indicate more than a foot of snow may fall farther south in eastern Nebraska and far western Iowa from Grand Island to Lincoln to Omaha to Council Bluffs. While still preliminary, keep this in mind if traveling.

Blizzard Warning and Tornado Threat

Orange = blizzard warning. Lime green = blizzard watch. Pink = winter storm warning. Dark blue = winter  storm watch.

Here is AccuWeather's snowfall forecast. Many roads will become impassible in these areas. Note: It will continue so snow near the Mississippi River past the time of this map.

Finally, there is a small area with a significant tornado threat late this afternoon and tonight:

NWS Storm Prediction Center Forecast. 5% is considered significant. 

While any tornadoes are certainly unwelcome, the moisture from this system in the winter wheat belt will be welcome indeed. This is the 5-day precipitation amount forecast from the NWS.

Another Winter Storm Update

Here is the forecast snow from a single model (the NAM) valid through 6am Sunday morning. If this is roughly correct, and it is in line with earlier forecasts, I-70, I-80, and I-76 could be impassible and/or closed given that there will be enough wind, at least in places, to officially qualify as blizzard conditions.

click to enlarge further

I urge you to be aware of this storm if you are planning travel in these areas. Note: The heavy snow will affect the Denver airport.