I'm on the road today but will update the blog when possible.
With all of the extreme weather of the last few days, I wanted to lighten the mood with this terrific performance by the great Frankie Valli and the male finalists on American Idol last week. Somehow, "Let's Hang On" seems an appropriate theme after all of the horrible weather the last few days with more to come today and, to a lesser extent, tomorrow.
I'm a huge Frankie Valli and the Four Seasons fan along with being a fan of the musical about their lives, Jersey Boys.
Enjoy!!
Tuesday, May 21, 2013
Today's Tornado Forecast
These forecasts are from the National Weather Service's Storm Prediction Center in Norman, Oklahoma. Norman is immediately south of Moore.
Tornadoes:
Another very active day is forecast, the fourth in a row. The significant threshold is 5%. Ten percent is quite elevated and the hatched area is where violent tornadoes may occur. This includes the Dallas-Ft. Worth Metroplex.
Large Hail:
Fifteen percent is the significant threshold and refers to the probability of hail 1" or larger in diameter. The hatched are is where hail 2" in diameter or larger may occur.
Damaging Thunderstorm Wind Gusts
In this category, 15% probabilities represent the significant threshold. Because its origins in aviation, the threshold is 50 knots = 58 mph.
Tornadoes:
Another very active day is forecast, the fourth in a row. The significant threshold is 5%. Ten percent is quite elevated and the hatched area is where violent tornadoes may occur. This includes the Dallas-Ft. Worth Metroplex.
Large Hail:
Fifteen percent is the significant threshold and refers to the probability of hail 1" or larger in diameter. The hatched are is where hail 2" in diameter or larger may occur.
Damaging Thunderstorm Wind Gusts
In this category, 15% probabilities represent the significant threshold. Because its origins in aviation, the threshold is 50 knots = 58 mph.
Monday, May 20, 2013
The Warning System Appears to Have Worked Well
I've already been called by reporters asking my impression of how well the warning system worked for Moore. As far as I can tell (this is preliminary), it worked well.
Here is the watch:
It was issued at 1:10pm, 2 hours and ten minutes before the tornado struck Moore at approximately 3:20pm CDT.
I don't know the exact moment the warning was issued, but it was posted on my blog at 2:46pm. That means there was at least 34 minutes of warning for Moore. The national average is twelve.
The NWS had the tornado warning out 16 minutes before the tornado ever touched the ground (see map below and radar loop, purple link).
I listened to an OKC radio station, KTOK, and they were in wall-to-wall coverage long before the tornado arrived. My ex-television station KFOR TV was on national television and they did their usual great job! The background audio of live reports carried the sound of the sirens.
In addition, the enhanced tools of meteorology like debris balls, "tornado debris signatures," and wind velocity centers pointed to the exact path of the storm. These were provided to enhance the meteorological certainty to people in the storm's path. If you would like to see a high-definition time lapse of all of this on radar, please click here.
So, it looks like weather science did its job.
Based on preliminary reports, the death toll may be high. A comment: Having lived in the area I can state that virtually none of the homes have basements. This tornado will almost certainly be rated F-5. Unless you are underground or in an reinforced safe room, those in the path of the F-5 winds can be killed in spite of the warnings as a closet does not provide enough protection when a home is flattened. This tornado was so strong, debris from Moore is currently falling (8pm) on Branson, Missouri.
ADDITION: Just after I finished this posting, multiple news organizations have reported the Oklahoma Medical Examiner says 51 fatalities have occurred. Reports of 120 hospitalized.
Here is a more precise map of the path.
'
Here is the watch:
I don't know the exact moment the warning was issued, but it was posted on my blog at 2:46pm. That means there was at least 34 minutes of warning for Moore. The national average is twelve.
The NWS had the tornado warning out 16 minutes before the tornado ever touched the ground (see map below and radar loop, purple link).
I listened to an OKC radio station, KTOK, and they were in wall-to-wall coverage long before the tornado arrived. My ex-television station KFOR TV was on national television and they did their usual great job! The background audio of live reports carried the sound of the sirens.
In addition, the enhanced tools of meteorology like debris balls, "tornado debris signatures," and wind velocity centers pointed to the exact path of the storm. These were provided to enhance the meteorological certainty to people in the storm's path. If you would like to see a high-definition time lapse of all of this on radar, please click here.
So, it looks like weather science did its job.
Based on preliminary reports, the death toll may be high. A comment: Having lived in the area I can state that virtually none of the homes have basements. This tornado will almost certainly be rated F-5. Unless you are underground or in an reinforced safe room, those in the path of the F-5 winds can be killed in spite of the warnings as a closet does not provide enough protection when a home is flattened. This tornado was so strong, debris from Moore is currently falling (8pm) on Branson, Missouri.
ADDITION: Just after I finished this posting, multiple news organizations have reported the Oklahoma Medical Examiner says 51 fatalities have occurred. Reports of 120 hospitalized.
Here is a more precise map of the path.
'
The Atlantic has an excellent backgrounder on tornadoes.
How to Do Something Positive
I have other work I must do this evening. I hope the live-blogging today has been helpful.
If you wish to do something for Moore and the other areas hit by tornadoes today, let me suggest:
If you wish to do something for Moore and the other areas hit by tornadoes today, let me suggest:
- Prayers
- Contributions to the Salvation Army
- Blood donations
More severe weather is likely later tonight and tomorrow. Meteorologists, already stretched thin in some cases, will have to work long hours again tomorrow for the fourth day in a row. Drop them a note, buy them dinner, give them a Starbucks or Sonic gift card.
Ozarks Update
Most likely location for tornadoes are north of Neosho, MO and west of Fayetteville, AR. Nothing that looks tornadic threatening Joplin at this moment. Storms moving ENE.
There is also a risk of flash flooding developing around Joplin.
Tornado Warning for Joplin
Rotational wind display.
Tornado is at the location of the circle moving ENE.
Joplin-Area Update
Tornado warning Nowata, Co. OK, radar at 6:29pm and tornado at location of arrow. Storm moving ENE. Tornado warning north of Joplin continues. Some damage reported in Barton Co.
Tornado Warnings Southwest Missouri (not Joplin)
While there is a thunderstorm complex moving toward Joplin with high winds and hail, no tornado indication on 6:15pm Radar. New tornado warning just issued north of Joplin. All storms moving ENE.
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| click to enlarge |
St. Louis and Central Missouri Update
Radar at 5:53pm. Nothing threatening St. Louis at the moment, but storms southwest near I-44 moving that general direction. Very strong storm near Boonville is moving ENE. No additional tornado indications.
Red River Tornado Threat
Tornado near Nacoca at 5:51pm according to radar. Tornado warning in effect.
Southeast Kansas - Southwest Missouri
5:48pm radar: tornado between Alma and Pittsburg.
To: Joplin: There is a severe thunderstorm southwest of the city but there is nothing tornadic at the present time.
To: Joplin: There is a severe thunderstorm southwest of the city but there is nothing tornadic at the present time.
Dangerous Situation Central Missouri
Tornado on the ground with lofted debris near Houstonia, MO (radar 5:14pm). It is headed for Pilot Grove, Nelson, and, if it holds together, Booneville-New Franklin. This is west of Columbia.
Texas-Oklahoma Update
Tornado approaching Henrietta, TX. Tornado southwest of Wilson, OK moving ENE. Tornado north of Stratford, OK moving ENE (arrows).
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