Tuesday, October 21, 2014

Great Weather For the Start of the World Series

FYI: For those not familiar with Kauffman Stadium ("The K" as the locals call it), that would be a light breeze from right to left field.

Ten Day Rainfall Forecast for Northern California

Hopefully, the two storms expected to affect Northern California in the next ten days are a sign of a wet winter ahead.

Severe Weather Phobia

Cory Mottice Photography. Thunderstorm approaching the
headquarters of  AccuWeather Enterprise Solutions
Here is an interesting article from the Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society about storm/weather phobias.

As the father of three, I would take each of them into the back yard when they were little and a thunderstorm was making a lot of noise (but still a safe distance) and talk about how "cool" the storm was and the pretty clouds. When they were older (early teens), I took them storm chasing. While none of them are interested in meteorology as a career, none of them are afraid of storms.

My colleague, Mindy Cook, is coming out with a children's book about storms which will be another great way to "fear-proof" your children about weather. We'll be talking more about that in the weeks to come!

Monday, October 20, 2014

Another Favorable Review

From Amazon's newest review (yes, rated 5-Stars):

A good read and an interesting story about the technologies that help forecast tornadoes, thunderstorms and hurricanes.

Looking for some great reading? Just click here.

100th Anniversary of the Birth of Jonas Salk

Unless you grew up in the 40's or 50's, you have no idea of the fear that gripped America in the summer due the the spread of polio. Simply by being in the wrong place at the wrong time, you could end up in an iron lung.
This week, we celibate the 100th anniversary of the birth of Jonas Salk. His polio vaccine (which I remember receiving) was a godsend that ended the apprehension. His polio vaccine is an example of science at its best.

Sunday, October 19, 2014

Ana Passing South of Kauai

Here is the latest from the South Kauai National Weather Service radar as of 6:56am HST (11:56am CDT):
Flooding rains are spreading across Oahu. A tropical storm warning is in effect for Kauai. Wind gusts of 40-50 mph will occur on Kauai, especially the south side.

Addition: The purpose of the above image was to show the eye of the hurricane. However, for those on Kauai, it may be misleading because mountain blockages aren't showing all of the rain affecting the island. Here is a better view of the heavy rains affecting Kauai at 7:19am HST.

As of 1:05pm CDT (8:05am HST), you can see the surf from the Sheraton Kauai (Poipu) web cam:
The highest waves are still a few hours away.

Some Good News On a Sunday

According to the International Red Cross and Red Crescent, 2013 had the lowest number of catastrophes in ten years with 22,500 dead (compared to an average of 100,000). Anthony Watts has details here.

Saturday, October 18, 2014

World Series Weather: Games 1 and 2

AccuWeather is forecasting great weather for Kansas City for the first two games of the World Series Tuesday and Wednesday.

Ana Update

High surf can be expected on the south and southwest facing beaches including Waikiki on Oahu and Poipu on Kauai. 

Friday, October 17, 2014

5-Day Rainfall Outlook

An item to note: California is getting a little rain. I'm hoping it is a harbinger of things to come as their rainy season approaches.

Latest on Ana

It now looks like Ana will follow a path south of the Islands. It will still affect them with showery, gusty weather and high surf on the south beaches (like Waikiki Beach on Oahu and Poipu Beach on Kauai).

Wednesday, October 15, 2014

On a Much Lighter Note...

Congratulations to the Kansas City Royals for advancing to the World Series. There is the potential for I-70 Series II if the Cardinals advance. If there is another I-70 Series, here is my suggestion as to who should throw out the first ball of the first game:

Don Denkinger!

Public Health Malpractice: The Ebola Fiasco

CDC Tweeting This Morning
This blog covers science. Public health is very much a science when it is properly practiced. Tragically, the U.S. government seems to be making it up as it goes along when it comes to Ebola. The fact the second health worker now confirmed to have Ebola was allowed to fly after being exposed is nothing but public health malpractice. Unfortunately, this has been the rule, not the exception, since this outbreak began.

Some background: I am an investor and adviser in a company called AscelBio. Our mission is to predict disease outbreaks in much the same way as meteorologists predict storms with the same goals of saving lives and money. There is good news and bad news:
  • Good news: We are good at what we do. Our forecasts have real skill.
  • Bad news: We are encountering the same governmental resistance as commercial meteorology did a half-century ago. The Centers for Disease Control (CDC)  and other government agencies are actively working against us as did the Weather Bureau in the 1950's and 60's
I was present when we briefed high-level officials in Washington, DC, in June. We told them Ebola had catastrophic potential and, yes, strongly encouraged them to hire us. They declined. We now know the results. 

In fact, the CDC and Department of Homeland Security (now focusing on climate change!) seem to be spending more time blocking our work than properly responding to the crisis. The medical community is crying out for help, saying the U.S. is not prepared. Don't believe that? Go here.

We have stayed under the radar because we have tried to work within the system to improve the outcome. We have given away a great deal of free service because we wish to be good public citizens. Now, it is time to let the people of the U.S. know the extent to which our government is failing them. As Ascel's COO James Wilson, MD, wrote earlier today:

Politicalization of these issues has not helped us identify solutions to the rapidly expanding problem in West Africa.  This author began his life's work under the Clinton Administration and later worked with the Bush Administration.  It should be obvious to any sane world citizen that "political health" should not be engaged, but rather "public health".  As discussed above, there is much shenanigans, information suppression, and politics that are interfering with this country's ability to execute the capabilities needed to protect us.
Meanwhile, 76 healthcare workers in Dallas await their fates.

The fact the CDC is using Twitter to try to contact people that should have been treated at the time of exposure in a compassionate but firm manner (i.e., restricting travel, etc.) is just a small indication at how bad the situation has become. Jim has written much more here

Ebola is not easily spread. But, it can be spread when infected people are let into the country and correct protocols are not followed when interacting with an infected man or woman. Unless the Administration stops attempting to practice politically correct public health, we are in for serious trouble. 

Ana Threatens Hawaii

While it is too soon for watches or warnings, Tropical Storm Ana -- likely to become Hurricane Ana, looks like it is going to threaten the Hawaiian Islands over the weekend. If you are planning a trip. consider postponing.