Saturday, October 25, 2014

Another Happy Reader!!

Via Twitter, a review of Warnings from Ms. Miranda Gibson of Arlington, Texas:

"Just finished your book this week, Mike. It was informative, well-written, and above all interesting. Most not in the industry don't realize that the science of "weather prediction" is, in many way, still in its infancy. Your book really laid out how much we've learned in 20, 30, 40 years and how much more we can learn. Just great! :) "

Thanks so much, Miranda. It is especially gratifying hearing from so many women who have enjoyed the book.

It is available in hard cover or ebook.

Saturday Fun: A Cure For Climate Change

Yes, they are serious.

Friday, October 24, 2014

Kansas City is Hot -- And, So Are the Royals

Forecaster Evie wants to let you know it isn't only Kansas City's baseball team that is hot, so is Kansas City this weekend. Via our friends at AccuWeather, here is a map of record temperatures.

She is also forecasting a few showers to be around the Bay Area where her beloved Royals are playing. For Game 4 Saturday evening:
Total rainfall amounts around the Bay Area will be ¼ to of an inch over the weekend, so a rainout is highly unlikely.

And, via the ECMWF (graphic by Dr. Ryan Maue), here is the forecast rainfall for Northern California the next ten days.
More than ¾ inch of rain is forecast in the Sierra along the I-80 corridor, so some of that rain will flow into California's parched reservoirs.

World Series: SFO Forecast

UPDATE: 10:26PM CDT: Evie's team wins again. Royals won 3-2. They lead the Series 2-1. 

Forecaster Evie wants you to know she is a big Royals fan.

She is forecasting fairly nice weather tonight but a chance of a few showers over the weekend.

Air Traffic Control for Drones

From MIT:

The U.S. Federal Aviation Administration has yet to propose rules to govern the use of commercial robotic aircraft in U.S. skies. But it predicts that 7,500 unmanned craft weighing 55 pounds (25 kilograms) or less will be operating in the U.S. by 2018.

The number of drones actually seems low to me.

Wednesday, October 22, 2014

Global Warming Idiocy and the Weak Economy

I've been working on this post for several days because I believe it is extremely important. So, it will stay at the top of the blog through Friday Thursday.
FEMA, part of the hapless Department of Homeland Security (now putting underwear manufacturers out of business!), is demanding each state prepare a plan to deal with how the weather is going to change in the next five years. Their instructions for the plans are below:
Forget climate skeptics, no reputable climatologist would even attempt to guess how weather is going to change in each state over the next five years! Period. There is no science that can do this. Yet, not only does each state have to spend time and money to generate a "plan," they are required to:

coordinating and integrating the mitigation planning process with the whole community, including agencies and stakeholders with mitigation capabilities that are responsible for economic development; land use and development; housing; infrastructure; natural and cultural resource management; and health and human services. Engaging agencies and stakeholders with data and authority early in the planning process facilitates both successful plan development and implementation. 

Translation: construction, land management, mining, energy, medicine, etc., etc., in other words the whole economy must "adopt" this nonsense or lose FEMA funding (which, of course, the citizens of each state pay for).

You might think, "Why am I making a big deal about this?" 

Planning for the weather five years from now is an exercise in futility plus it has a real cost to every American. 

To illustrate, I call upon my favorite economic writer, Rich Karlgaard. Earlier this week, he published an amazing piece, America's Missing Wealth. I can't overstress how important it is to read the whole thing (3-4 minutes, tops). Economists estimate that regulation costs the U.S. economy 1-2% per year. Like me, Rich does not believe that all regulation is bad:

Mandatory seat belts have helped cut traffic fatalities by 51% on a population-adjusted basis since 1949. Far fewer people are now killed or maimed in industrial accidents. The air in downtown Los Angeles is breathable again. Would this have happened without federal regulation? Yes, but likely not as fast.

But, as with the FEMA planning order, things have gone way too far. The one or two percent per year, compounded, has huge, huge costs. 

If the U.S. economy had grown an extra 2% per year since 1949, 2014′s GDP would be about $58 trillion, not $17 trillion. So says a study called “Federal Regulation and Aggregate Economic Growth,” published in 2013 by the Journal of Economic Growth. More than taxes, it’s been runaway federal regulation that’s crimped U.S. growth by the year and utterly smashed it over two generations.

Allowing that some regulation might have a net positive benefit, Rich goes on to write:

So let’s, for the sake of argument, posit that some regulation has been good for us, while many other regs have only hurt economic growth. Let’s also argue that sensible regulation, combined with the retirement of outdated regulation, could have brought about the same improvements to health and safety–but at a cost of 1% potential growth per year, not 2%. Where would the U.S. economy be today?
–The 2014 GDP would be $32 trillion, not $17 trillion.
–Per capita income would be $101,000, not $54,000.
–Per capita wealth would be $480,000, not $260,000. It would probably be higher than that, since savings rates might be higher.
–The U.S. would have no federal, state or municipal debts or deficits.
–Pensions would be solid. So would Social Security.
Overregulation and counterproductive tax policies are killing the American dream and are -- in large part -- responsible for the perceived and real maladies in U.S. family income and related issues. 

The proposed FEMA regulation is the poster child for costly, nonsensical regulation and should be immediately killed. It won't be, because Big Climate is largely comprised of "true believers" who don't allow the fact something is scientifically impossible deter them. Especially, since compliance will mean more costly studies and consulting contracts…good for people and businesses "inside the Beltway" but bad for everyone else.  

Folks, it is election season. Let the candidates and your elected representatives know where you stand. Otherwise, the Washington insiders will have won again…at the expense of the rest of us. 

Air Umbrella: Not Sure What to Make of This

An "umbrella" that blows the rain away is underdevelopment. A video and details here.

Tuesday, October 21, 2014

Great Weather For the Start of the World Series

FYI: For those not familiar with Kauffman Stadium ("The K" as the locals call it), that would be a light breeze from right to left field.

Ten Day Rainfall Forecast for Northern California

Hopefully, the two storms expected to affect Northern California in the next ten days are a sign of a wet winter ahead.

Severe Weather Phobia

Cory Mottice Photography. Thunderstorm approaching the
headquarters of  AccuWeather Enterprise Solutions
Here is an interesting article from the Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society about storm/weather phobias.

As the father of three, I would take each of them into the back yard when they were little and a thunderstorm was making a lot of noise (but still a safe distance) and talk about how "cool" the storm was and the pretty clouds. When they were older (early teens), I took them storm chasing. While none of them are interested in meteorology as a career, none of them are afraid of storms.

My colleague, Mindy Cook, is coming out with a children's book about storms which will be another great way to "fear-proof" your children about weather. We'll be talking more about that in the weeks to come!

Monday, October 20, 2014

Another Favorable Review

From Amazon's newest review (yes, rated 5-Stars):

A good read and an interesting story about the technologies that help forecast tornadoes, thunderstorms and hurricanes.

Looking for some great reading? Just click here.

100th Anniversary of the Birth of Jonas Salk

Unless you grew up in the 40's or 50's, you have no idea of the fear that gripped America in the summer due the the spread of polio. Simply by being in the wrong place at the wrong time, you could end up in an iron lung.
This week, we celibate the 100th anniversary of the birth of Jonas Salk. His polio vaccine (which I remember receiving) was a godsend that ended the apprehension. His polio vaccine is an example of science at its best.

Sunday, October 19, 2014

Ana Passing South of Kauai

Here is the latest from the South Kauai National Weather Service radar as of 6:56am HST (11:56am CDT):
Flooding rains are spreading across Oahu. A tropical storm warning is in effect for Kauai. Wind gusts of 40-50 mph will occur on Kauai, especially the south side.

Addition: The purpose of the above image was to show the eye of the hurricane. However, for those on Kauai, it may be misleading because mountain blockages aren't showing all of the rain affecting the island. Here is a better view of the heavy rains affecting Kauai at 7:19am HST.

As of 1:05pm CDT (8:05am HST), you can see the surf from the Sheraton Kauai (Poipu) web cam:
The highest waves are still a few hours away.

Some Good News On a Sunday

According to the International Red Cross and Red Crescent, 2013 had the lowest number of catastrophes in ten years with 22,500 dead (compared to an average of 100,000). Anthony Watts has details here.

Saturday, October 18, 2014

World Series Weather: Games 1 and 2

AccuWeather is forecasting great weather for Kansas City for the first two games of the World Series Tuesday and Wednesday.