Thursday, September 18, 2014

NAMIC 2014 Annual Convention

Mike and I will be visiting National Harbor, Maryland this coming week to attend the 2014 NAMIC Annual Convention at the Gaylord National Resort & Conference Center. Mike is a guest speaker and will be presenting "Weather Trends" to the audience of insurance professionals. Each convention attendee will also receive a copy of Mike's book WARNINGS: The True Story of How Science Tamed the Weather.

To book Mike Smith for your next conference or convention please contact mindy@mikesmithenterprises.com or visit our website at www.mikesmithenterprises.com for more information.

George Clooney: Another Global Warming Hypocrite

What does George Clooney say about global warming:
The Academy Award winner added that while there is no way to know if global warming was responsible for the typhoon, denying the existence of climate change is "ridiculous."
"Well it's just a stupid argument," Clooney told reporters. "If you have 99 percent of doctors who tell you 'you are sick' and 1 percent that says 'you're fine,' you probably want to hang out with, check it up with the 99. You know what I mean? The idea that we ignore that we are in some way involved in climate change is ridiculous. What's the worst thing that happens? We clean up the earth a little bit?"
Emphasis mine.

George is doing his part behaving hypocritically by using a private jet to fly liquor to Italy!
People magazine
The story goes on to say,
The groom-to-be is a business partner with Casamigos Tequila founder and good friend Rande Gerber, who was photographed loading 100 cases of the brand's award-winning Blanco, Reposado and AƱejo tequila onto a jet headed from California to Italy. 
Here is a photo:
Brandon Smith, photographer
It is just unbelievable that those who lecture us about "clearing up the earth" because of global warming use private jets to ship liquor across oceans!

I'm not sure there is another issue that brings out hypocrisy as much as global warming.

Flooding Update: 8:20am Thursday

Here are the four day rainfall amounts:
As much as eight inches of rain have fallen in New Mexico with more on the way.


It is now raining from parts of Missouri and Texas to Arizona.

Here is the forecast of additional rainfall. Torrential rains and flooding may occur in west Texas and southwest Oklahoma.
I still believe there will be some spots in Kansas with around 3 inches or a little more.

This is a major flood situation. Roads are closed and high water rescues have had to take place. Please use extreme caution in these areas.

Wednesday, September 17, 2014

Global Warming Caused Ferguson. Is There Anything It Can't Do??

The "People's Climate March" is coming up in NYC in the next few days and it is sponsored by a group called 350.org. There are people attending from around the nation. I thought it might be useful to consider 350's view of the climate issue for those on the fence as to whether they support what this organization stands for.

According to the website of 350.org their "US Disvestment Organizer" has determined that global warming caused the terrible problems in Ferguson, MO in August:
As far as I can tell, she has no scientific credentials. Her Twitter description reads:

I bring you this background because she makes a rather startling claim (her words in italics) at 350's web site:


Why the Climate Movement Must Stand with Ferguson


By Deirdre Smith, Strategic Partnership Coordinator
It was not hard for me to make the connection between the tragedy in Ferguson, Missouri, and the catalyst for my work to stop the climate crisis….
Climate change is bringing nothing if not clarity to the persistent and overlapping crises of our time.
Connection between climate change and Ferguson??? Hmmm. Perhaps, because of her lack of background in climate science, she didn't know how to research the temperature on August 9, 2014, the day of the horrible shooting of Michael Brown in Ferguson, a north suburb of St. Louis.

So, I did a little research:
The high temperature that day was a very pleasant 82° which was seven degrees cooler than usual. The record high of 110° occurred in 1934 when world climate was cooler than it is today.

To put St. Louis' high of 82° in perspective, thousands of people pay thousands of dollars every day to fly to Honolulu to enjoy and vacation in Hawaii's pleasant climate. What was the high in Honolulu the same day?
It was 87°, five degrees warmer than St. Louis.

Obviously, a high of 82 degrees had nothing to do with the tragic shooting and terrible events that unfolded in Ferguson. While I am tempted to make other comments, I'll stop here.

Comprehensive Overview of Flood Threat

Here is AccuWeather's latest flood risk map:

There is still a great deal of rain to fall in the Southwest. Here is the 36-hour rainfall amount forecast:
More than six inches in far eastern Arizona. Note also the cluster of heavy rains in southwest Texas. 

The Plains are a very tough forecast at this point. The air mass is so very wet right now that just about any thunderstorm can cause flash flooding. Springfield, MO had more than 3 inches of rain with water rescues earlier today.
Springfield News-Leader
Before the main system even arrives, seven inches of rain are forecast with a cluster of thunderstorms in Kansas. Rainfall amount forecast for the next 24 hours:

The "main" system, the remains of Hurricane Odile, won't arrive in the Plains until Friday afternoon. Here is a timing map by AccuWeather.

I continue to believe that some parts of the Great Plains will have more than seven inches. If these rains happen to fall in the areas that received heavy rain the last three weeks (i.e., Kirksville, MO with more than ten inches), severe flooding may result. Stay tuned. 

Updated Flood Threat

Here is the latest on the threat of flooding from the Southwest into the Plains:

The purpose of posting these is to raise awareness so you "turn around, don't drown" when the flooding actually develops. Yet, Good Morning America had an example of the most dangerous possible action: A school bus driving through a flooded area! It was even leaving a wake.

Here is what occurred here in Kansas less than year ago when a school bus drove into about the same depth of water.

It should be illegal to drive a school bus into a flooded area. Regardless, don't do this! Flooding will develop over the next few days. Please be careful.

Tuesday, September 16, 2014

Major Rains in the Great Plains

The forecast for catastrophic flooding in the Southwest has not changed.

I want to give a "heads up" to readers in the Central and Southern Plains for a major rain event the end of the week and over the weekend.

I am confident as to what will happen but still not confident about where. Let me illustrate.

Below is a plot of the forecast rainfall from this morning's run of the European model. It forecasts very heavy rains from southwest Kansas into south central Oklahoma.

The US GFS model run from early this afternoon shows the heaviest rains over northern Kansas with a second area of heavy rains over southern Texas.

I still believe that more than 8 inches of rain will fall in the heaviest zone. I suspect we will be able to pin the location down tomorrow. My purpose in posting is because lots of people travel (football games, etc.) over the weekend and there may be travel disruptions. Also, people who live near rivers that easily flood should probably also keep a close eye on the evolving weather forecasts and warnings.

Tuesday Fun

Q.) What did environmentalists use before candles?

A.) Electricity.

Catastrophic Flooding Possible

These rainfall amounts -- nine inches near Tucson -- are more than two thirds of the amount of rain they receive in a year. If this forecast is anywhere near correct, catastrophic flooding will occur in Arizona and New Mexico, including highway washouts.

Whatever you do, do not drive into flooded areas. If you live near a wash or other watercourse, be prepared to evacuate to higher ground immediately at the first sign of flooding.

Monday, September 15, 2014

Record, Horrible Climate Change Drought? Already Ended!

Back in April I wrote a posting called Climafornication. Showtime Networks debuted a series called "Years of Living Dangerously." It ran (and repeats still run) on Sunday evenings immediately after its series, "Californication." In that blog post, I wrote:
I'd say that comment was accurate. The series (since it is still running) lasted longer than the supposedly unprecedented drought!


While reasonable people can and do disagree about global warming, the series used sleazy techniques to convey its propaganda point. For example, noted climate scientist Don Cheadle went to the small town of Plainview, Texas, to talk about the drought it was then experiencing. Nothing wrong with that. But, that is not where the producers stopped. Look at this screen capture. The brown tint in the air was added post-production to exaggerate the drought! They employed a number of these production tricks to make things look worse than they were. That is propaganda, not science.

We also heard how the west Texas (already dry) climate has "changed" and droughts were going to be more frequent. Only one problem with all of this: The drought is over. The official National Weather Service drought metric is below. I've placed an arrow pointing to Plainview.
Less than five months later, the drought is officially gone. That is not to say the region does not have challenges, it does. More rain is needed to fill reservoirs (so as to be prepared for the next drought) and the depletion of the Ogallala Aquifer is a huge problem.

The series also starred frequent private jet commuter Arnold Schwarzenegger and private jet owner and pilot Harrison Ford. Nothing like being lectured to decrease our carbon footprints by people whose footprints are the size of Alaska.

Instapundit's Glenn Reynolds says,

I'll believe global warming is a crisis when the people telling me it's a crisis start acting like it's a crisis.
Above, Arnold in advertisement for "Years."
Below left, Arnold and (global warming advocate) Gov. Jerry Brown in a private jet.
Below right, Arnold in his giant Mercedes SUV.
Once again, in difficult economic times, people trying to make a living and support their families are misleadingly lectured about carbon footprints by Hollywood hypocrites who crisscross the world in private jets.
Harrison Ford in "Years" (left) and with his jet
I like Harrison Ford as an actor and I would use a private jet extensively if I could afford to do so. But, he is in absolutely no position to tell me about the size of my carbon footprint.

Many of these people wonder why newspaper readership is down, television news ratings are down, and fewer people are paying to see movies. May I suggest looking in a mirror?

Southwest Thunderstorms Begin

AccuWeather Regional Radar at 3:31pm PDT. Scattered thunderstorms are causing heavy rains.
These are the first of the thunderstorms to be triggered by the remains of Hurricane Odile. Odile is a very minimal hurricane at this point and the wind speeds will continue to weaken as the center moves as indicated below.
I believe that life-threatening flash floods will develop over the next few days. Stay tuned.

Update on Flash Flood Risks

To me, it is highly likely flash flood producing rains will develop in parts of Arizona and New Mexico due to the remains of Hurricane Odile now over the Baja Peninsula.

It is likely there will be an area where heavy rains (i.e., ≥ 4"/ 24 hr.) occurs in the Great Plains I can't be more specific as to location except it should be in the area indicated below.
AccuWeather has much more. 

You might wonder why I am mentioning the Plains when I can't yet be specific as to the exact location and that is a fair question. The reason is that some parts of the Plains are now wet. If additional heavy rains develop in those areas, significant to major flooding could develop. So, I intend this as a "heads up" for people so they will know to monitor the weather forecasts and warnings as the week progresses. 

The current Palmer Drought and Wetness Index is below. 

Damage in Southern Baja

ADDITION: Summary and many photos of damage, here

ORIGINAL POSTING...

Via Twitter, here are damage photos from Hurricane Odile. In the photo immediately below, look at the lower left where the sea wall has been torn out leaving a deep pit. As this has now transitioned to news coverage, the blog's coverage will focus on the ongoing flood threat. 





Heavy Rains Likely in the Southwest

The sun is just starting to rise in Cabo and we do not have a full damage assessment. However, we now have to turn our attention to the likelihood of floods developing in the Southwest in the next few days. Here is the ECMWF forecast of rainfall amounts:
Dr. Ryan Maue
The threat areas include Phoenix, Tuscon and most of the southern half of New Mexico. There is a small area of heavy rains near Las Vegas (Mt. Charleston), so they should keep watch, too. Hurricane Odile is taking a path similar to 1976's Hurricane Kathleen which caused severe flooding in the Southwest. So, please keep an eye on the weather if you live or will be traveling in the area the next few days. More from AccuWeather.

As to the threat in the central U.S., it still exists but the location of heavy rains is still very uncertain. 

50 Ways to Leave Your Lover...

…and 52 reasons why global warming has stopped.