Monday, September 1, 2014

5-Day Rainfall Outlook

Here are the preliminary estimates of the amount of rain the last 24 hours to 7am.
The Smith House in far northeast Wichita had .55 inches.

Here is the National Weather Service's forecast of 5-day rainfall. However, some of the fine-scale computer models are forecasting more than five inches in far eastern Kansas and parts of Missouri.

Labor Day Fun

Barbra Streisand told Diane Sawyer that we're in a global 
warming crisis, and we can expect more and more intense 
storms, droughts and dust bowls. But before they act, 
weather experts say they're still waiting to hear from Celine Dion.

-- Jay Leno

Sunday, August 31, 2014

Severe Thunderstorm Watch Until 2am

Large hail and damaging winds possible ahead of this strong line of thunderstorms.

Here is a view of the entire squall line as of 8:30pm.
This is the end of the severe weather coverage on the blog this evening.

Tornado Crossing I29 in SW Iowa

Strong tornado indication. People in Sidney and surrounding area (red polygon) should take immediate safety precautions!!
The tornado is red/blue combination ENE of Nebraska City. The tornado is moving ENE.

Tornado Watch Until 2am Monday

Change in Blog Policy

As of tomorrow, I will erase routine severe weather coverage a few days after the storm. Of course, the coverage of historic storms (i.e., Hurricane Sandy) will remain on the blog for anyone who wishes to go back and see how the storm was coverage in real time.

This is a request made by several readers.

So, take a look at this evening's storm coverage. But, it will be deleted in a day or two.

Severe Thunderstorm Watch Until 10pm

Very large hail and damaging winds are both possible.

First Tornado Warning of Afternoon: KS-NE

As expected, the tornado threat has rapidly increased near the KS-OK border. The first tornado warning of the day (red polygon) has been issued just north of Beloit, KS.

I urge you, if you in the tornado watch (see below) you keep an eye on the weather. And, if you are ahead of this line of thunderstorms be ready to take shelter.

From my analysis, the highest risk between now and 6pm extends from the line itself to about Lincoln, NE and Clay Center, KS.

Radar is from 4:52pm. Yellow polygons are severe thunderstorm warnings for large hail/damaging winds.

Severe Weather Update: 4:40pm

There are thunderstorms in northeast Nebraska that may cause giant hail (≥2.5 inches). They are moving northeast. Radar 4:33pm.

Radar 4:36pm shows thunderstorms near KS-NE border that are starting to show signs of rotation. From this line toward Lincoln, NE and Marysville, KS should keep a close eye on these storms. I believe they have the higher chances of producing a tornado/damaging winds.

Tornado Watch: Kansas, Nebraska, South Dakota & Iowa

The NWS has issued a tornado watch until 9pm CDT for the area outlined in red below:

Storms should move toward the east northeast. Near term, the area from U.S. 81 from around Concordia and Hastings to Omaha and Lincoln are at risk.

Please keep up on the latest information if you live in or near this area!

Kansas & Nebraska: Thunderstorms Developing Rapidly

Areas of rapidly developing thunderstorms (arrows) in southern Nebraska and northern Kansas. Radar from 3:26pm CDT.
There is the rather high (for this time of year) potential for severe thunderstorms in this region as the afternoon progresses. 

Severe Weather Threat Remainder of Labor Day Weekend

This forecast is valid from 3pm this afternoon to 7am Monday.

The forecast below (15% is the significant threshold) for 7am Monday to 7am Tuesday.
Storm Prediction Center

Sunday Fun: Space Shuttle Traverses Los Angeles

In spite of the awful music, this is great time-lapse of the space shutting making its way across Los Angeles last year.

Friday, August 29, 2014

2,500+ Mile 'Hurricane' Error

Remember this posting from nine days ago?

A number of sources, including the DrudgeReport, were forecasting a major hurricane to hit New Orleans on the ninth anniversary of Katrina. Today is the anniversary. Oops.

The storm that was supposed to strike New Orleans became Hurricane Cristobal. Its current position is below. The error is more than 2,500 miles!
Hurricane forecasting is not easy. Combine that with people trying to drive page views with "panic forecasts" and you get an ugly combination.

So, please choose a responsible source for your hurricane forecasts and refuse to spread the panic forecasts -- as that is what they want.