Wednesday, March 4, 2015

15-Day Rainfall Outlook

Dr. Ryan Maue
This time of year, there is intense interest in the Farm Belt with regard to soil moisture for the winter wheat crop and for spring planting (cotton, corn, soybeans, etc.). This is the ECMWF Ensemble forecast of precipitation for the next 15 days.

Too much rain is an issue in the Delta soybean area and in the cotton belt.

Too little rain is an issue in scattered locations in the winter wheat belt. The crop, however, is in pretty good shape because the moisture, while lighter than normal, has often come in the form of snow which has protected the crop from extreme cold and given the gradual moisture which is optimal.

It is my opinion that more precipitation will fall in Kansas and Nebraska than snow here. I think this forecast should be pushed northwest about 150 miles. So, moisture-wise, the winter wheat's short term prospects are fine.

Tuesday, March 3, 2015

Winter Storm Update

Here is the snowfall forecast:

Here is the Sperry-Piltz Ice Storm Index. The areas with ratings of 2's could have some isolated power failures.

Please check your local AccuWeather forecast for details.

Keep an Eye on Your Pets!

Our neighbor's dog loves the snow. I would caution dog owners that, after the warm weather earlier in the week, there are a number of half-frozen ponds in our area of Kansas. So, please keep an eye on your pets and make sure they stay off ponds at least at this point.

ADDITION: After the fatality in Wichita Sunday afternoon when a woman went after her dog on a pond, fell through the ice and drowned, we have had another similar incident today. Fortunately, this woman lived.

With another surge of cold air on the way, I'm going to leave this at the top of the blog (even though it was written Saturday) the rest of the day. Please forward to your friends!!

Is the Media Not Capable of Learning From Its Mistakes?

Remember the "tornado wall" fiasco that USA Today and others wrote about in breathless, encouraging terms? After that was slammed by every atmospheric scientist I can think of, now comes (drum roll, please): The Hurricane Wall! And, yes, it is brought to you by USA Today. 

The plan -- such that it is -- is to put 78,000 wind turbines (who cares about the cost!) out in the ocean to generate power (of course, who needs power out in the oceans and the cost of getting the power to land and synching it with the grid would be astronomical) with the added benefit of weakening hurricanes. Hint: It won't work.

Never mind that this is the same institution that brought us highly questionable claims about trends in tornadoes and severe thunderstorms that even the IPCC doesn't agree with.

It seems the mainstream media will print anything -- regardless of validity -- the appears to put 'green' energy in a favorable light or make global warming appear worse than it is.

Don't Want This Snow to Be a Surprise

The weather forecasts in south central Kansas are a bit inconsistent at the moment. My opinion is that tomorrow's storm will be about 3 inches (of course, give or take an inch) for the Greater Wichita area.

Monday, March 2, 2015

Extensive Winter Storm Threats

Wow, an amazingly busy map. Orange (arrows) is a blizzard warning. Bright green (arrow) is a blizzard watch. The pink is winter storm warnings. In the West, it is due to snow.

The dull blue is a winter weather advisory.

The dull green (Arkansas to West Virginia) is a winter storm watch for potential freezing rain or snow. Below is a general idea of the freezing rain accumulations:

Below is a general idea of the amount of snow accumulation expected:

Unfortuately, the hunter green in Ohio and West Virginia is a flash flood watch. Here is a general idea of how much precipitation is forecast:
Dr. Ryan Maue
Please check your local AccuWeather forecast for specific details.

Before the Words, There Was the Funk

In my life, I have taken exactly one "selfie" and it is posted below.
I took it because there was no one else around and I was on musically hallowed ground -- Hitsville USA -- where all of the great original Motown hits were recorded in what was Barry Gordy, Jr.'s dirt floored garage. The complex is two homes, joined together, on Grand Avenue in Detroit. It is now the Motown Museum and I urge you to visit if you are ever in Detroit. I reported on my trip here.

Today, Leonard Pitts had a fun column about how The Temptations' My Girl reached the top of the charts 50 years ago this week. He correctly noted that before David Ruffin's voice chimed in with "I've got sunshine, on a cloudy day," there was James Jamerson's bass thumping out, "da da da, da da da" and then Robert White's guitar joined with one of the most famous riffs in history.

Jamerson and White were two of the Funk Brothers, Motown's incredible in-house band, responsible for the "Motown Sound." So, by all means, read Leonard's column and then get the backstory of the creation of My Girl by watching the wonderful documentary, Standing in the Shadows of Motown which will play on Encore Black at 4:10pm (CST) Friday and 9:40pm Saturday. You will not be disappointed.

More Ice on the Way

Sunday, March 1, 2015

Pond and Pet Tragedy in Wichita

Yesterday, I wrote about the danger of dogs and ponds in this highly variable winter weather.
I'm just sick about this. If you cannot read the small type, a woman died of drowning after she went into a pond to chase her dog.

I know you love your dogs but your life is not worth sacrificing. Please control your dog but if they get into the middle of a dangerous pond, do not try to retrieve them.

Coming in Like a Lion

And, here is the latest AccuWeather Regional Radar:

Sunday Fun II: Humor and Parenting Commentary From Dave Barry

Here it is. Enjoy.

Sunday Fun: A Global Warming Fable

Click here.

Saturday, February 28, 2015

Forecast Radar for 10am CST

Summary of the Personal Attacks on Climate Scientists

Those who have been following my blog for the last ten days have been reading about the unprecedented personal attacks on climate scientists who do not toe the line on the climate "consensus." While I wish for this blog to be non-political, I would not be a good reporter if I did not point out that this began with postings linked to the White House this past weekend and then, Monday, continued with letters from Congress and press releases from Big Environment

This event brought a most-welcome letter from the American Meteorological Society.

I have wanted to post a single article that summarizes these events but the silence from the mainstream media is absolutely deafening. So, I am linking to this column from Mark Steyn which, in spite of snark, some hyperbole and political comments is factually accurate. 

Now, Let's Talk About Ice

Here is the freezing rain forecast accumulation:
The odd boundaries are a quirk of the way the NWS forecasts these things. Regardless, this will make travel very hazardous.