Tuesday, November 29, 2011

Good News: More Moisture. Bad News: Winter

A very slow moving low pressure system in the upper atmosphere predicted to linger over the Southwest is going to bring much-needed moisture to the region. Here is the precipitation amount forecast for the next ten days (via AccuWeather's professional site, this is the European model):
click to enlarge


And, a significant amount of the moisture is going to fall in the form of snow. The graphic below are the probabilities of one inch or more of snow accumulation:

6pm Wednesday to 6pm Thursday


6pm Thursday to 6pm Friday


And, even heavier and more widespread snows will likely spread into the Plains Friday night and Saturday.

By Sunday morning, most of the Nation west of the Mississippi will be colder than average -- in some areas much colder. Winter is coming!

4 comments:

  1. What kind of a winter are you predicting for north metro Atlanta? Warmer or colder than the norm? More snow like last year?

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  2. Hi Quiet: I don't do long range forecasts, I just don't seem to have the talent/skill for it.

    Our long range forecast group at AccuWeather is releasing an updated winter forecast in a day or two and I will post it here. They do a very good job.

    Thanks for the question.

    Mike

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  3. Thanks--for some reason I thought you were based in Atlanta, so might have reason to hazard a guess! Now see that you're in Wichita.

    Bigger picture, and maybe the better question: are (or do we know if) winters in the southeast are generally trending warmer or cooler?

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  4. Don't know off the top of my head. However, the raw data is here: www.nws.noaa.gov/climate/index.php?wfo=ffc You can create a spreadsheet or use other methods to learn about trends, if any, in temperatures and precipitation.

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