Tuesday, January 31, 2012

Winter Storm, But Where?

I often comment about how meteorology has made tremendous strides at forecasting and storm warnings out to about 72 hours. Well, there is a winter storm developing in about 60 hours but I still do not have a good idea as to its evolution. But, because it may be so major, it is time to give a "heads up" even though my confidence is not high.

Here is the National Weather Service's 48-hour forecast, created by multiple forecast models, of the probability of 4" or more of snow ending 6pm Friday. Note: Snow will likely be continuing beyond this time.


The forecast shows >90% probabilities along I-70 and I-76 in Colorado and >80% probability along I-80 in far western Nebraska. Given the strong winds that are likely, this could cause major highway, Amtrak, and airport problems at DEN and CYS.

Since the snow will likely last beyond 6pm Friday evening, what might the totals look like? It is too soon to say, but some areas of the High Plains may well have more than 15".

There is some really good news and that is of substantial moisture amounts in the winter wheat belt.
It would not surprise me if some parts of Kansas received three inches or more.

1 comment:

  1. KDEN generally does well outside of the epic storms (Mar '03, Dec '06). Sure there will be cancellations and deicing delays, but so far no models indicate this storm will be anywhere near that magnitude along the front range.

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