Is the first decade+ of the 21st century the warmest in the past 100 years (as per Peter Gleick’s argument)? Yes, but the very small positive trend is not consistent with the expectation of 0.2C/decade provided by the IPCC AR4. In terms of anticipating temperature change in the coming decades, the AGW dominated prediction of 0.2C/decade does not seem like a good bet, particularly with the prospect of reduced solar radiation. ---- Dr. Judith Curry, Climate Scientist
WattsUpWithThat has run two recent articles pertaining to the threat of global cooling. Based on my research, significant cooling would be far worse for humanity than warming.
The first article, by Dr. Nicola Scafetta, discusses the linking of solar-lunar cycles to earth's temperature.
[caption id="attachment_7161" align="alignnone" width="622" caption="IPCC's 2007 forecast. The upper and lower bound of the of the green is the "95% confidence" interval (i.e., IPCC is 95% confident the monthly temperatures will fall within the green band). The blue is the sun-moon cycle forecast."][/caption]
The IPCC's forecast is failing miserably. Only 16% of the months since 2007 are within the green band when 95% are supposed to be within it. All of the misses are on the cold side. If the IPCC is too warm at four years then they are likely too warm at 40 years.
The second forecast is by David Archibald who forecast the solar slowdown far before it happened. It is downright frightening. Major cooling will cut world agriculture production.
[caption id="attachment_7162" align="alignnone" width="624" caption="David Archibald's forecast of the shifting corn belt as a result of global cooling induced by the sunspot cycle."][/caption]
Finally, there is a third forecast of cooling, available here.
As I have said before, I have no idea whether the forecasts of cooling, warming, or status quo will be correct. I am confident the IPCC's 2007 and, especially, 2004 forecasts are too warm.