Some Thoughts About Yesterday's Tornadoes: We Have Tamed the Weather!

By -
Photo by Melanie Metz, taken yesterday near Lyons, KS (scroll down for a related photo)

One hundred twenty one of reports of tornadoes in 18 hours. Five deaths.

Here is an interesting fact: All five deaths were in Woodward, OK* where an unknown technical problem prevented the sirens from sounding. In other words, little or no warning and people died. 

With the other 120 tornadoes zero deaths. Even though many of the tornadoes occurred in darkness. 

Why? Amazingly accurate forecasts and warnings days in advance. On April 9, this blog posted the graphic below outlining where tornadoes were likely Friday and Saturday -- six days in advance!
On Friday, for only the second time in history, the NWS Storm Prediction Center issued this forecast of maxed out tornado probabilities which was also posted on this blog:
click to enlarge
Note the sentence under the graphic, "Long-track, violent tornadoes are possible stretching into the overnight hours Saturday night!"

Now, here is the NWS SPC preliminary map of tornado paths which, in fact, stretched into the overnight hours last night,
What do you see? Long track tornadoes stretching into the overnight hours! Compare the location of the tornadoes (red) to the forecasts (above). Wow -- SPC nailed it!

As I write these words, there is a resident of a mobile home park in southeast Wichita talking about how he saw Merril Teller of Wichita's KWCH TV and he and his wife decided to take shelter. A mobile home and automobile landed on top of his home destroying it. But they were safe because of the warning. 

KWCH TV had an interview with a worker art Spirit Aerosystems who said, "we had plenty of warning." They took shelter and they were safe. 

At McConnell AFB, KWCH is reporting that they flew out out the KC-135 tankers well ahead of the tornadoes, saving the taxpayers millions. 

Both yesterday and in Dallas two weeks ago, multiple tornadoes strike populated areas and warnings save scores of lives. What other science delivers this type of value at little or no incremental cost?! If you doctor saves your life, you write a check. Public storm warnings are free (no incremental costs above the taxes you already pay).

Tornado damage in south Wichita. From KWCH TV via Facebook.
To my colleagues at the National Weather Service, the television stations in the central U.S., and at AccuWeather -- great job!! Through your very hard work and dedication we have "tamed" the weather. 


At AccuWeather Enterprise Solutions, we provide business-to-business storm warnings tailored to their exact requirements. For example, Union Pacific Railroad was stopping trains based on our warnings to keep them out of harm's way. I took this photo yesterday afternoon of a stopped train east of Pratt. In the background is the thunderstorm that produced the tornado in Melanie's photo (at top).

I'll have some thoughts on yesterday's storm chase later today. 


*The 1947 long-track tornado named the Woodward Tornado killed 181, 107 in the city. No where along its path was there any warning. It was during an era when the Weather Bureau forbade itself from issuing tornado warnings. The story of the horrible 1947 Woodward tornado is the second chapter of Warnings: The True Story of How Science Tamed the Weather. 


Addition 5:22pm Sunday: National Weather Service map of the tornadoes and the tornado warnings. The Wichita tornado was F-3. The Kanopolis tornado (WSW of Salina) was F-4!

Comments

  1. Casey OsburnApril 15, 2012 at 9:25 AM

    Great writeup. Meterologists get ridiculed for inaccurate forecasting, but people don't take note of the countless times their forecasts save lives. Kudos to you, as well, as your blogs and tweets were recycled several times over and reached thousands of people.

    ReplyDelete
  2. UnknownApril 16, 2012 at 12:13 AM

    they actually had a day 7 outlook area for the 14th. check out my video http://s259.photobucket.com/albums/hh287/jnc3985/?action=view&current=marquettetornado.mp4 :)

    ReplyDelete
  3. cityApril 26, 2012 at 3:07 AM

    This comment has been removed by a blog administrator.

    ReplyDelete

Post a Comment

Popular posts from this blog

Hilary's Forecast Path Shifts West; Updated 9:20am PDT

By -
Image
The forecast path of the center of Hilary has shifted a bit to the west. This increases the threat to the Southland, especially in terms of flooding.  Rainfall Note the heavy rains are forecast for Los Angeles County. Serious flash flooding may result. Because the forecast path has shifted to the west, that increases the threat of serious flooding in Los Angeles County north into Yosemite and the southern Sierra. It lessens the threat in Utah and western Arizona. While the threat of widespread flooding in Utah and Arizona lessens, note that some thunderstorms with localized heavy rain show up on the map.  In Nevada, the more western path increases the risk of serious flooding around Mt Charleston and into the central part of the state.  Here is the updated  (9am PDT) flash flood risk map. Wind There are already about 40,000 people without power in California, mostly in the center of the state.  The maps above are the peak gusts forecasted with the storm. The highest winds, in general,
Read more

Dangerous Travel Conditions - People Reportedly Stranded

By -
Image
-- Note, more current info available. Scroll up. --- Updated Information as of 8am PDT You are risking your life if you attempt to travel through the purple area.  While the rain has not begun in coastal California, I would urge you to use this time to make any preparations. Power outages have occurred already in southeast California. Here is the latest radar as of 7:55am PDT. As of 6:40am PDT , the radar indicates moderate to heavy rain falling over desert areas of Southern California and far western Arizona (click to enlarge).  Rainfall amounts for the 24 hours ending at 7am PDT show more than two inches have already fallen. There are reports from reliable sources that roads are already washed out and that people are stranded in isolated parts of the desert.  Below is a high-resolution computer model's rainfall forecast from 5am PDT to 11pm PDT Sunday. More than a foot of additional rain is forecast to fall. This will lead to catastrophic flooding.  Here is a map of current watc
Read more

Update on Tornado and Wind Potential; 12 Noon PDT

By -
Image
There was at least one tornado and at least one funnel cloud yesterday.  --- original forecast --- Hilary (the swirly symbol) continues to move NNW paralleling the coast of Baja California, Mexico. The area outlined in red has a significant risk of tornadoe s the rest of the afternoon.  Below is a list of peak wind gusts so far.  Peak winds may increase farther north as the afternoon progresses.  Addition at 12 noon PDT: Sure enough, winds have increased.  Note: If you are in the San Diego area, I recommend not  traveling east on I-8. Heavy rains may cause flash flooding that will involve the highway. 
Read more