Tornado Outlook -- Little Change

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I'm sorry to report there is little change in the tornado outlook for today. Here is the information you need to help make good decisions.

Current Info
AccuWeather regional radar at 8:14am CDT shows two areas of non-severe thunderstorms. I've placed arrows showing their differing directions of movement. This illustrates difluence in the upper atmosphere which is conducive to violent thunderstorms later today. 
More from AccuWeather here. 

Forecast
Here are the tornado probabilities from noon today until 7am Sunday.
These three graphics are NWS Storm Prediction Center forecasts.

The probabilities of thunderstorm-generated straight winds of 58 mph or higher.

And, the probability of 1" (in the hatched areas 2") diameter hail.


Many have asked me about the timing. I don't see any problems before about noon or 1pm. It may even be longer than that before the thunderstorms form.  Just keep your ear out for the issuance of a tornado watch.  

This experimental forecast for 4pm looks about right to me with supercell thunderstorms in progress in eastern Nebraska and developing in the Gyp Hills of Kansas. Do not take this forecast too literally. 


Note: Wichita's "selective" siren activation is still a few days away from being ready. So, if a tornado approaches in Sedgwick Co., they will be done on an "all or nothing" basis.

I will be storm chasing today. You can follow the chase @usweatherexpert. 

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