Love the book, Mike. Got it for my iPad via the Kindle reader. Really well written, easy to understand without becoming too technical in meteorological terminology. I remember seeing those weather warnings with the incorrect storm locations and its direction of travel.
I own the DVD the Jeff and Kathryn P. made of their adventure/nightmare of that day. Very tough to watch.
John Sacrey NWS Storm Spotter Benton, AR http://sacrey.info
Mike - I just read the book and it was outstanding! Nice work and really well written. I look forward to backtracking through "Warnings" now (which arrived just yesterday along with this book). I am curious about something though. With all the errors NWS Springfield made that day, could that manifest into some sort of liability issue between them and the City of Joplin? Would it even be possible for the City to sue NWS for "negligence"? I guess that seems a bit far fetched but when you compare this against the April 27th, 2011 Outbreak, since the number of deaths in that oubreak was not necessairly preventable due to the earlier convection that caused severe infrastructure problems. But there were no infrastructure issues in southern Missouri that day. Some citizens of Will County did sue the NWS in 1993 as a result of the 1990 Plainfield tornado (http://www.deseretnews.com/article/307628/ILLINOIS-RESIDENTS-SUE-AGENCY-SAY-TORNADO-WARNINGS-INADEQUATE.html) but I was unable to find the outcome of that lawsuit. What do you think?
I found the following passage from a Google Books version of "The Tornado: Nature's Ultimate Windstorm" by Thomas Grazulis. It occurs in the midst of a paragraph discussing the possibility of lawsuits arising from a violent tornado strike on a large gathering or sports event:
"No matter what decision is made, fault will certainly be found.... Legal action, citing inadequate forecasting, is not unknown. In August 1993, two of the people who were injured at Plainfield, Illinois, along with the survivors of twelve people who were killed, sued the NWS for $74 million. The suit was eventually dismissed."
If you scroll back to the beginning of that particular chapter, you will find an eerily prophetic statement:
"It seems inevitable, however, that a killer tornado with a death toll of one hundred or more people will strike the United States at some time in the future." (The book was written in 2001)
Grazulis also goes on to say that "spikes" in the tornado death toll should be expected in the 21st century when tornadoes occur "at exactly the wrong time and in exactly the wrong place."
The forecast path of the center of Hilary has shifted a bit to the west. This increases the threat to the Southland, especially in terms of flooding. Rainfall Note the heavy rains are forecast for Los Angeles County. Serious flash flooding may result. Because the forecast path has shifted to the west, that increases the threat of serious flooding in Los Angeles County north into Yosemite and the southern Sierra. It lessens the threat in Utah and western Arizona. While the threat of widespread flooding in Utah and Arizona lessens, note that some thunderstorms with localized heavy rain show up on the map. In Nevada, the more western path increases the risk of serious flooding around Mt Charleston and into the central part of the state. Here is the updated (9am PDT) flash flood risk map. Wind There are already about 40,000 people without power in California, mostly in the center of the state. The maps above are the peak gusts forecasted with the storm. The highest winds, in general,
-- Note, more current info available. Scroll up. --- Updated Information as of 8am PDT You are risking your life if you attempt to travel through the purple area. While the rain has not begun in coastal California, I would urge you to use this time to make any preparations. Power outages have occurred already in southeast California. Here is the latest radar as of 7:55am PDT. As of 6:40am PDT , the radar indicates moderate to heavy rain falling over desert areas of Southern California and far western Arizona (click to enlarge). Rainfall amounts for the 24 hours ending at 7am PDT show more than two inches have already fallen. There are reports from reliable sources that roads are already washed out and that people are stranded in isolated parts of the desert. Below is a high-resolution computer model's rainfall forecast from 5am PDT to 11pm PDT Sunday. More than a foot of additional rain is forecast to fall. This will lead to catastrophic flooding. Here is a map of current watc
[There is an updated version of this forecast. Scroll up.] This tornado outbreak has the potential for violent, long-tracked tornadoes at night. It is a recipe for a terrible disaster in terms of human life if precautions are not taken. Here are the color codes: Red hatched: High risk of strong tornadoes. Yellow hatched: Enhanced risk of strong tornadoes. Brown: Significant risk of tornadoes. The northern area of Iowa-Illinois-Missouri will see tornado-producing thunderstorms beginning tomorrow (Tuesday) afternoon and continuing into Tuesday night. The southern area, from St. Louis across the Ozarks and into northeast Texas, may not develop until evening and then continue well into the night. Nighttime tornadoes are 2.5 times more deadly than tornadoes during the day. Addition, 7:30pm. The Texas Tech model shows thunderstorms developing over the Flint Hills and in Oklahoma 7-8pm. Those are already supercells in Kansas and the red lines in both areas are local rotation in the storm
I need to get a copy! Is it at Watermark??
ReplyDeleteYes, Watermark has it.
ReplyDeleteIt is also at Amazon, Kindle and Nook.
Love the book, Mike. Got it for my iPad via the Kindle reader. Really well written, easy to understand without becoming too technical in meteorological terminology. I remember seeing those weather warnings with the incorrect storm locations and its direction of travel.
ReplyDeleteI own the DVD the Jeff and Kathryn P. made of their adventure/nightmare of that day. Very tough to watch.
John Sacrey
NWS Storm Spotter
Benton, AR
http://sacrey.info
Mike - I just read the book and it was outstanding! Nice work and really well written. I look forward to backtracking through "Warnings" now (which arrived just yesterday along with this book). I am curious about something though. With all the errors NWS Springfield made that day, could that manifest into some sort of liability issue between them and the City of Joplin? Would it even be possible for the City to sue NWS for "negligence"? I guess that seems a bit far fetched but when you compare this against the April 27th, 2011 Outbreak, since the number of deaths in that oubreak was not necessairly preventable due to the earlier convection that caused severe infrastructure problems. But there were no infrastructure issues in southern Missouri that day. Some citizens of Will County did sue the NWS in 1993 as a result of the 1990 Plainfield tornado (http://www.deseretnews.com/article/307628/ILLINOIS-RESIDENTS-SUE-AGENCY-SAY-TORNADO-WARNINGS-INADEQUATE.html) but I was unable to find the outcome of that lawsuit. What do you think?
ReplyDelete@Pete. I'm not an attorney, but I would tend to doubt it. They were clearly watching the storms and issuing warnings.
ReplyDeletePete,
ReplyDeleteI found the following passage from a Google Books version of "The Tornado: Nature's Ultimate Windstorm" by Thomas Grazulis. It occurs in the midst of a paragraph discussing the possibility of lawsuits arising from a violent tornado strike on a large gathering or sports event:
"No matter what decision is made, fault will certainly be found.... Legal action, citing inadequate forecasting, is not unknown. In August 1993, two of the people who were injured at Plainfield, Illinois, along with the survivors of twelve people who were killed, sued the NWS for $74 million. The suit was eventually dismissed."
If you scroll back to the beginning of that particular chapter, you will find an eerily prophetic statement:
"It seems inevitable, however, that a killer tornado with a death toll of one hundred or more people will strike the United States at some time in the future." (The book was written in 2001)
Grazulis also goes on to say that "spikes" in the tornado death toll should be expected in the 21st century when tornadoes occur "at exactly the wrong time and in exactly the wrong place."
Elaine