Today's Severe Weather Outook

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I have lower than average confidence in this one due to:

  • The non-severe thunderstorms moving through the area now. There is a chance they could cause the atmosphere to stabilize and prevent severe thunderstorms from developing this afternoon.
  • The forecast models are unusually non-uniform in their forecasts for this afternoon and evening.
That said, I'm bringing this to your attention because some of the indicators point to a serious tornado threat. 

The 5% area is where I start paying attention to tornado risk:


And, large hail (15% significant) of 1" or larger is possible over a broad area with 2" or larger possible in the hatched area. 
So, you may want to keep an eye on the weather this afternoon and evening in the affected areas.


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