Saturday, October 27, 2012

How Much Damage from Hurricane Sandy?

Roger Pielke, Jr. has an insightful blog post pertaining to the potential damage for Hurricane Sandy.

With the caveat that we are in meteorologically uncharted waters (i.e., we've never had a storm of this nature in the modern meteorological era), I'd like to offer some speculation that might be useful:

Sandy may cause more than $100 billion in damage, more than Katrina.  You can refresh your memory about Katrina's damage here.

The computer models that I trust are getting more and more in synch on a record storm.
Last night's European model with a 944 mb center just before landfall.

This morning's U.S. GFS with a 936 mb (!) center just before landfall.
While the details are important to a given location, the overall message is nearly identical: This will be a tremendous storm.  If either of these model forecasts are exactly correct (that is still a big "if"), I expect the total damage (including loss to the U.S. economy) to be worse than Katrina.

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