Saturday, December 22, 2012

Update on Christmas - Boxing Day Storm

There is a lot of important information here. If you are planning to travel, please pay attention as I want my readers safe.

The pre-Christmas snow in the Northeast is being covered by AccuWeather here. This blog post is focused on the storm coming out of the Northwest tonight that will sweep into the Southern Plains then turn northeast the 26th.

Freezing Rain:

Here is a followup to the freezing rain threat I wrote about yesterday and there continues to be a significant chance of glazing ice in the general vicinity of I-70 between 6pm Sunday and 6pm Monday. The light blue probabilities are around 70%.

From 6pm Monday (Christmas Eve) to 6pm Tuesday (Christmas Day), the geographic extent of the ice threat widens to literally coast to coast.

Snow:

Now, let's look at the probability of an inch of snow or more from 6pm Saturday to 6pm Sunday:


The probability of an inch or more of snow from 6pm Sunday to 6pm Monday:

And, from 6pm Monday to 6pm Tuesday. As mentioned yesterday, still would scoot things 20-50 mi. farther north in Oklahoma and Arkansas but this is in the ballpark. 

Here is where things get "interesting" (in the inverted language of meteorologists): The European model indicates the potential for blizzard conditions in the middle Mississippi Valley Christmas night and the 26th with gusts to near 40-45 mph. Very high winds develop with thunderstorms over Georgia and South Carolina and over West Virginia. This storm, if the European is correct, will cause high winds to move into the Northeast on Wednesday night and Thursday.
Wind speeds from the European model for Wednesday morning
If the European is the superior model as much as 7-9" of snow could fall with the strong winds.


There is a chance of thunderstorms with damaging winds from around Houston to Atlanta on Christmas Day and then farther into the Carolinas on Wednesday.

Temperatures will be average or below average in most areas east of the Rockies from Christmas Day to New Years. 

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