Storm Outlook Through Tomorrow Night

By -
As I said before, this is a big deal.

 2pm This Afternoon to 7am CDT Thursday

Here are the latest tornado probabilities. Five percent is a significant threat, 15% - for tornadoes - is quite elevated. Hatching means major tornadoes possible. The tornado threat extends to western Pennsylvania and West Virginia.

The damaging wind probabilities are maxed out -- 60% is as high as they go. Hatching means gusts above 75 mph are possible. Fifteen percent is the significant threshold. One of the dangers of derechoes is the very fast forward movement: Often a mile a minute. So, you may have little time to prepare when a warning is issued. 

The probability of hailstones 1" in diameter or larger. Hatches is 2" in diameter or larger. Wind-driven hail is a major destructive threat.
The threat doesn't stop tonight.

7am CDT Thursday to 2am Friday
Very high probabilities from Raleigh to D.C. to Philadelphia to NYC. Air travel will be a nightmare. Some airlines are now allowing changes based on the forecast. Here is my Airline Travel Survival Guide. 

 I'm going to post preparatory suggestions again. Please look through them if you live in the high risk areas.


  • Fill your car's gas tank, then have it in the garage before the storms arrive.
  • If you have a generator, fill its tank. 
  • Bring in lawn furniture, trampolines, etc.
  • Flashlight with fresh batteries
  • Full charge for cell phones, laptops and other items
  • Get a power inverter that can be run from your car
  • If you must keep items chilled (i.e., medicines), get a portable generator you can place outdoors that you can plug in a refrigerator directly
  • Use a licensed electrician to install a generator directly wired into your home's system
  • Regardless of an inverter or portable generator, get extension cords long enough to reach from the generator or inverter to whatever you wish to hook it to
  • Any items such as milk 
  • Refill any prescriptions about the run out


    • Special notice to news media: Tomorrow, tomorrow night, and Friday, do not say these storms "occurred without warning."

    Comments

    Post a Comment

    Popular posts from this blog

    Hilary's Forecast Path Shifts West; Updated 9:20am PDT

    By -
    Image
    The forecast path of the center of Hilary has shifted a bit to the west. This increases the threat to the Southland, especially in terms of flooding.  Rainfall Note the heavy rains are forecast for Los Angeles County. Serious flash flooding may result. Because the forecast path has shifted to the west, that increases the threat of serious flooding in Los Angeles County north into Yosemite and the southern Sierra. It lessens the threat in Utah and western Arizona. While the threat of widespread flooding in Utah and Arizona lessens, note that some thunderstorms with localized heavy rain show up on the map.  In Nevada, the more western path increases the risk of serious flooding around Mt Charleston and into the central part of the state.  Here is the updated  (9am PDT) flash flood risk map. Wind There are already about 40,000 people without power in California, mostly in the center of the state.  The maps above are the peak gusts forecasted with the storm. The highest winds, in general,
    Read more

    Dangerous Travel Conditions - People Reportedly Stranded

    By -
    Image
    -- Note, more current info available. Scroll up. --- Updated Information as of 8am PDT You are risking your life if you attempt to travel through the purple area.  While the rain has not begun in coastal California, I would urge you to use this time to make any preparations. Power outages have occurred already in southeast California. Here is the latest radar as of 7:55am PDT. As of 6:40am PDT , the radar indicates moderate to heavy rain falling over desert areas of Southern California and far western Arizona (click to enlarge).  Rainfall amounts for the 24 hours ending at 7am PDT show more than two inches have already fallen. There are reports from reliable sources that roads are already washed out and that people are stranded in isolated parts of the desert.  Below is a high-resolution computer model's rainfall forecast from 5am PDT to 11pm PDT Sunday. More than a foot of additional rain is forecast to fall. This will lead to catastrophic flooding.  Here is a map of current watc
    Read more

    Update on Tornado and Wind Potential; 12 Noon PDT

    By -
    Image
    There was at least one tornado and at least one funnel cloud yesterday.  --- original forecast --- Hilary (the swirly symbol) continues to move NNW paralleling the coast of Baja California, Mexico. The area outlined in red has a significant risk of tornadoe s the rest of the afternoon.  Below is a list of peak wind gusts so far.  Peak winds may increase farther north as the afternoon progresses.  Addition at 12 noon PDT: Sure enough, winds have increased.  Note: If you are in the San Diego area, I recommend not  traveling east on I-8. Heavy rains may cause flash flooding that will involve the highway. 
    Read more