The Issue of Learning the Wrong Lessons

By -

I'm watching an interview with a Sandy survivor who lost her daughter and husband. The survivor was asked why she didn't evacuate. The reply, "We survived Irene, Gloria, 'Noreasters." This is a tragic, tragic story and it is one that meteorologists hear over and over. I wouldn't be doing my job without commenting on it with a goal of keeping these tragedies from recurring.

Here in Wichita, I hear, over and over, "We had a tornado in '67 and I survived it. Why should I go to the basement today?" Yes, we did have a tornado in the Prairie Village neighborhood of Wichita in '67. While the Fujita Scale did not exist in those days, it appears to be have been an F-0 or F-1.

This is known to meteorologists as "learning the wrong lesson." Surviving a weak storm does not mean you can survive the next storm. Especially since storms are of different intensities.

One of the cues people should rely on is what meteorologists are saying. I've shared some of my words of caution and safety on the blog the last week. You'll recall I posted this personal plea from Gary Szatkowski the head of the National Weather Service in Mt. Holly, New Jersey. We were certain it would be much worse than Irene and said so.

Focus on these words:
These words were prophetic: This is exactly what occurred to the woman interviewed. She talked about how, once rescuers got to her, what should have been a 3 min. walk to the ambulance took 45 minutes. There was so much debris the firefighters carrying her on the stretcher didn't know what they were walking on. Would the next step be on top of a swimming pool and all of them crash through the debris and drown?

By my back-of-the-envelope calculations, the early warnings of Sandy saved at least thousands of lives (it may be tens of thousands had its last minute turn been unforecast). 

 Today's weather enterprise, the National Weather Service, broadcast media, and private sector weather companies do an amazing job with major storms. Whether it is you or a loved one, I urge you to take modern storm warnings seriously. If told to evacuate, do so.

 And, if a hurricane, blizzard, or ice storm warning is issued or if a "particularly dangerous situation" tornado watch is issued, step up and make sure you can take care of yourself for 3-7 days. Freshly refilled prescriptions, car's gas tanks full, essential foods, etc. 

 By taking warnings seriously and taking these few steps to take care of yourself, vast, vast amounts of suffering can be alleviated. 

Comments

Post a Comment

Popular posts from this blog

Hilary's Forecast Path Shifts West; Updated 9:20am PDT

By -
Image
The forecast path of the center of Hilary has shifted a bit to the west. This increases the threat to the Southland, especially in terms of flooding.  Rainfall Note the heavy rains are forecast for Los Angeles County. Serious flash flooding may result. Because the forecast path has shifted to the west, that increases the threat of serious flooding in Los Angeles County north into Yosemite and the southern Sierra. It lessens the threat in Utah and western Arizona. While the threat of widespread flooding in Utah and Arizona lessens, note that some thunderstorms with localized heavy rain show up on the map.  In Nevada, the more western path increases the risk of serious flooding around Mt Charleston and into the central part of the state.  Here is the updated  (9am PDT) flash flood risk map. Wind There are already about 40,000 people without power in California, mostly in the center of the state.  The maps above are the peak gusts forecasted with the storm. The highest winds, in general,
Read more

Dangerous Travel Conditions - People Reportedly Stranded

By -
Image
-- Note, more current info available. Scroll up. --- Updated Information as of 8am PDT You are risking your life if you attempt to travel through the purple area.  While the rain has not begun in coastal California, I would urge you to use this time to make any preparations. Power outages have occurred already in southeast California. Here is the latest radar as of 7:55am PDT. As of 6:40am PDT , the radar indicates moderate to heavy rain falling over desert areas of Southern California and far western Arizona (click to enlarge).  Rainfall amounts for the 24 hours ending at 7am PDT show more than two inches have already fallen. There are reports from reliable sources that roads are already washed out and that people are stranded in isolated parts of the desert.  Below is a high-resolution computer model's rainfall forecast from 5am PDT to 11pm PDT Sunday. More than a foot of additional rain is forecast to fall. This will lead to catastrophic flooding.  Here is a map of current watc
Read more

Update on Tornado and Wind Potential; 12 Noon PDT

By -
Image
There was at least one tornado and at least one funnel cloud yesterday.  --- original forecast --- Hilary (the swirly symbol) continues to move NNW paralleling the coast of Baja California, Mexico. The area outlined in red has a significant risk of tornadoe s the rest of the afternoon.  Below is a list of peak wind gusts so far.  Peak winds may increase farther north as the afternoon progresses.  Addition at 12 noon PDT: Sure enough, winds have increased.  Note: If you are in the San Diego area, I recommend not  traveling east on I-8. Heavy rains may cause flash flooding that will involve the highway. 
Read more