Tornado and Severe Thunderstorm Update

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These are experimental forecasts that forecast the location and intensity of thunderstorms. I am providing these with a goal of helping visualize the approximate location and timing of the storms.  Do not regard these forecasts as exact.  

Looks like the storms will fire between 4 and 6pm from eastern Nebraska and southwest Iowa into Kansas and Oklahoma. Here is a regional view in the 4-5pm time period with the thunderstorms just developing:
Dr. Ryan Maue, click to enlarge

One hour later, very strong storms are developing in eastern Nebraska and from near Wichita to Fairview, Oklahoma.

Finally, from 6 to 8pm. Note the brand new storms on the Missouri-Iowa border.


I want to show you one closeup for approximately 5 to 6pm. The arrows indicate the computer model is forecasting large hail -- do not take the location and times literally. My goal is to show the earlier forecasts for large hail seem to continue to be valid.


If these forecasts are approximately correct, what are the takeaways?

  • Just because thunderstorms do not threaten at the end of the school day, do not assume there is no threat to the high school football games.
  • All of the thunderstorms depicted (i.e., yellow or red color) have the potential for cloud to ground lightning. Be prepared to implement the lightning safety precautions. 
  • The storms with red or more intensity could have large hail.
  • Yes, there is potential for tornadoes especially in eastern Nebraska and Iowa. 
  • There is a lesser tornado threat near the Missouri-Iowa border, and if barometric pressures fall more rapidly, briefly in southern Kansas and northern Oklahoma. Here are the tornado safety rules for schools. Here are the tornado safety rules for homes. 

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