tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7965215084022057128.post8241978058370004953..comments2024-03-27T10:20:55.246-05:00Comments on MSE CREATIVE CONSULTING BLOG: How Much (Tornado) Warning is Enough?Mike Smithhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/17435605216805307424noreply@blogger.comBlogger5125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7965215084022057128.post-42774833608612979702011-05-27T16:56:48.169-05:002011-05-27T16:56:48.169-05:00That should have said....With the advent of Dual P...That should have said....With the advent of Dual Pol radar....sorry!James Magyarnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7965215084022057128.post-33732016437592420812011-05-27T16:55:35.763-05:002011-05-27T16:55:35.763-05:00The problem with a color system is....Well it has ...The problem with a color system is....Well it has to hit something or actually be confirmed for a red in the case above. So, what happens if you are in the first mile or so of the path? Then your lead time is cut way down. With the advent of dual radar, the ability to confirm a tornado is on the ground...without spotter or local EM input is going to drastically increase. <br /><br />Personally, I think the best thing that has happened in the past 25 some years since the 88 has been in service...is the addition or change to polygon warnings. No longer are full counties issued a warning. Its more of the direct path of the cell.James Magyarnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7965215084022057128.post-15091008464909433362011-05-26T09:34:32.268-05:002011-05-26T09:34:32.268-05:00I might also add that the higher you are on that h...I might also add that the higher you are on that hierarchy, the smaller the geographic extent. A [Blue] watch might cover large chunks of states, spanning from Dallas to Des Moines or Salina to Sioux Falls, while the [Yellow] covers a handful of counties, [Orange] and [Red] might only affect a handful of town(ship)s.The Monsterhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/15291546809967159683noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7965215084022057128.post-27832101808013527352011-05-26T09:28:47.098-05:002011-05-26T09:28:47.098-05:00If there is a specific cell showing rotation heade...If there is a specific cell showing rotation headed my way, the more lead time the better. If you could tell me it will be at my house in 55-60 minutes, that's great. I realize you can't do that very reliably now, but if you could, then tell me.<br /><br />"<i>an intermediate level between today's watch, and short-fuse warnings</i>"<br /><br />This is the crux of it. There has to be a way to convey levels of risk. Perhaps we could adopt a color-coding system:<br />{Warning}<br /> [Red] confirmed tornado on the ground or funnel cloud.<br /> [Orange] Doppler radar shows rotation of a cell or visual confirmation of rotating wall cloud.<br /> [Yellow] Specific strong storms with clear potential to develop into Orange or Red. (Roughly equal to Severe Thunderstorm Warning.)<br />{Watch}<br /> [Blue] No specific R/O/Y warning has been issued, or those issued have passed, but other specific storms could still develop. <br />{None}<br /> [Green] No forecast for even the potential to form damaging storms. (Yes, I know that this is out of order based on the color spectrum, but we are conditioned to think of green as "all clear".)The Monsterhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/15291546809967159683noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7965215084022057128.post-72837306601775438532011-05-26T07:47:36.937-05:002011-05-26T07:47:36.937-05:00I'm of the opinion that Storm Based Warnings h...I'm of the opinion that Storm Based Warnings have improved the specificity and reduced the falsely alarmed area. I remain concerned about the gerrymandering of SBW polygons to conform to county or CWA boundaries, though. What we need are better tools to get the data out to the public, and here's where a mix of technology (new set-top boxes which are aware of their geographical location, NOAA Weather Radio receivers with geospatial awareness (Midland is already working on this), and cellphone system notifications using the data broadcast capabilities of the cellular systems. <br /><br />I also know NSSL scientists are working on Warn On Forecast, to provide significantly earlier warnings, or, what in my mind might be, an intermediate level between today's watch, and short-fuse warnings.gpsguyhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/01498300200377104931noreply@blogger.com