tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7965215084022057128.post9066170560742996818..comments2024-03-28T14:54:34.646-05:00Comments on MSE CREATIVE CONSULTING BLOG: Worst Science Story of the WeekMike Smithhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/17435605216805307424noreply@blogger.comBlogger8125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7965215084022057128.post-15141039737651652712012-02-25T06:22:41.000-06:002012-02-25T06:22:41.000-06:00While I agree that tornado forecasting has never b...While I agree that tornado forecasting has never been better, the bigger question is what percentage of tornado warnings in 2011 resulted in zero deaths? The problem is that the public doesn't pay attention.....far too many Warnings where NOTHING happens. I know you've covered this topic extensively, but it's still an obstacle the science of meteorology must overcome.AmishElectriciannoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7965215084022057128.post-3241161696786451282012-02-25T06:38:06.000-06:002012-02-25T06:38:06.000-06:00People who live in Tornado alley KNOW, you dont me...People who live in Tornado alley KNOW, you dont mess around when a warning is announced; unless you're tired of living...zanenoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7965215084022057128.post-62896743311087008372012-02-25T08:17:23.000-06:002012-02-25T08:17:23.000-06:00"The watch (a forecast) further states that t..."The watch (a forecast) further states that there is a 'high' probability of tornadoes" <br><br>If I remember correctly, tornado watches were originally called "Severe Weather Forecasts" back in the 1950s and early 60s when they were first used. The switch to the current "watch" and "warning" terminology occurred after the 1965 Palm Sunday outbreak -- another event that led to a lot of reflection on "what went wrong."Elainenoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7965215084022057128.post-18011264816989455222012-02-25T08:22:13.001-06:002012-02-25T08:22:13.001-06:00You are correct, there are too many false alarms. ...You are correct, there are too many false alarms. I point that out in my book, "Warnings" and elsewhere. Nevertheless, it is ridiculous to claim that tornado forecasting "eludes" us. While it is not perfect, it is one of the best of the predictive sciences. That is where a valid comparison can be made. <br><br>Thanks for the comment.Mikenoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7965215084022057128.post-71011006769749234062012-02-25T08:22:13.000-06:002012-02-25T08:22:13.000-06:00You are correct. Thanks for the comment!You are correct. Thanks for the comment!Mikenoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7965215084022057128.post-58831615208203340012012-02-25T09:38:01.000-06:002012-02-25T09:38:01.000-06:00Also, if you count other Storm Prediction Center p...Also, if you count other Storm Prediction Center products as "forecasts," a convective outlook indicating significantly elevated risk of tornadoes (10% hatched area with possibility of strong or violent tornadoes) went up around 8 a.m. (almost 10 hours ahead of time). And a Public Severe Weather Outlook -- which SPC issues specifically to call attention to potentially damaging or life-threatening weather conditions -- went up at 11:26 a.m. (6 hours ahead of time) that named SW Mo. as an area at risk: <br><br>http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/archive/2011/pwo_201105221627.html<br><br>Both these products, by the way, also mentioned a severe weather/tornado risk for other areas that experienced tornadoes that day, including MN, WI and northern IL.Elainenoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7965215084022057128.post-40047811074030052932012-02-25T09:42:18.000-06:002012-02-25T09:42:18.000-06:00And don't forget this wording in the Public Se...And don't forget this wording in the Public Severe Weather Outlook: "The greatest severe threat should exist during the mid to late afternoon into this evening over parts of the mid and upper Mississippi Valleys SOUTHWESTWARD TO THE OZARK PLATEAU." (emphasis mine)Elainenoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7965215084022057128.post-15978015376621135002012-02-25T11:51:36.000-06:002012-02-25T11:51:36.000-06:00No question. This story is so bad that I'm sho...No question. This story is so bad that I'm shocked AP even moved it, let alone local papers printing it. Whatever happened to editors and fact-checking?!Mikenoreply@blogger.com