Meteorological Musings

AMS Annual Meeting, Part 3: Jobs

2012-01-27T12:29:00.001-06:00

Here is an essay from the American Meteorological Society meeting from one young meteorologist concerned whether there will still be jobs for human forecasters or whether computers will do all the work.

My estimation is that there will be a role for human forecasters for at least the next quarter century.

After that, who knows? The advance of both weather science and computer science ("Moore's Law") is so rapid, I won't hazard a guess beyond that period time.

Extras for "Warnings" Readers

2012-01-27T01:21:00.000-06:00

Did you know there is a web site exclusively for readers of Warnings: The True Story of How Science Tamed the Weather?

All you have to do is go to: www.warningsbook.com . Then, enter the row of numbers just above "First Edition" opposite the Dedication Page. As a hint, the first number is 10 and the last number is 1. No spaces. That will unlock the bonus page for you.

That will show full-resolution videos on a number of topics related to the book, including what happens when a tornado strikes a train, the simulation of the crash of Delta 191, my speech to the people of Greensburg, and others.

Just a bonus exclusively for Warnings readers!

Sen. Paul was not "Irate"

2012-01-26T11:43:00.001-06:00

The Nashville Airport has released video of Sen. Paul's incident with the TSA. There is absolutely no indicate he was "irate" as the TSA reported.

Sen. Rand Paul (sitting) and speaking on the phone.

There is also no question he is being "detailed" (the TSA says he was not detained). The end of the video clearly shows him being taken out of the airport's "secure" area.

So, in my mind and in the minds of a number of legal experts who have opined on the subject, the TSA is in clear violation of the U.S. Constitution regarding travel by U.S. Senators and Representatives.

Many, including family members, have asked why I blog about this subject. It is because (perhaps because I fly so often), I'm watching our rights and the rule of law evaporate right before our eyes. I'm shocked the White House has defended the TSA's treatment of Sen. Paul.

NYC's Archbishop Timothy Dolan wrote on a completely different topic yesterday:

This latest erosion of our first freedom should make all Americans pause. When the government tampers with a freedom so fundamental to the life of our nation, one shudders to think what lies ahead.

Go back to ten years ago: Did you ever think you'd have to appear nude, take off your shoes, etc., etc. to get on an airplane? Did you think your car or bus would be searched by the TSA without probably cause?

The history of our world is that rights, once given up, are not easily regained.

Alabama and Florida Panhandle Tornado Watch

2012-01-26T11:14:00.000-06:00

Here is the latest tornado watch on this series of storms.

It is in effect until 5pm CST.

The threat of tornadoes and strong thunderstorm winds will likely spread east and north later today. Here is the NWS Storm Prediction Center's Outlook (in yellow) where there is an elevated or "slight" risk.

I'm on airplanes the rest of the day, so I cannot keep posting on these storms. If you are in these areas, please keep up on local sources of weather information.

Tornado Watch Du Joir

2012-01-26T06:57:00.000-06:00

It has been a long tradition that the AMS annual meeting brings bad weather during the meeting to whatever city is hosting us. Thus, New Orleans is under both a tornado watch and a flash flood warning at the moment.

First, the tornado watch:

And, the flash flood warning (green) with my location in light blue.

This has been an amazing number of consecutive days with tornado watches for January.

Austin in January 2013: If the drought hasn't ended before we arrive, it will likely be over before we leave!

AMS Annual Meeting, Part 2: School Safety

2012-01-26T06:00:00.001-06:00

There have seen a number of presentations pertaining to school safety here at the AMS meeting. Yesterday afternoon, forensic meteorological engineer Tim Marshall presented a paper on his investigation of buildings destroyed in the Joplin tornado.

The schools did not fare well.

Recently, I posted the tornado safety rules for schools and these presentations drove home how important they are, especially never to shelter in a room with an outside wall (see above) or in structure with a wide free-span roof (i.e., a gym).

That said, some of the hallways (where the students should shelter) didn't fare very well either.

I've previously stated that it is time to take a second look at public shelters. Perhaps this capability should be built into schools.

"Storm Chasers" Cancelled

2012-01-26T01:45:00.000-06:00

Discovery has announced that its series Storm Chasers will not be renewed. I've been asked for my opinion. Tim Samaras, one of the stars, talks about the show and its cancellation on his Facebook page here.

I thought the show had its good points and its bad points. The good was that it increased interest in severe weather and, hopefully, by showing their power made people respect them and more likely to find shelter when a tornado approached.

On the downside, the show had far too much manufactured "controversy" and made at least some people think tornadoes were easy to see and chase. The latter was dangerous.

I enjoyed watching an occasional episode and wish everyone involved well.

Tornado Watches Have Expired

2012-01-25T21:52:00.000-06:00

AccuWeather regional radar shows the line of thunderstorms continues to move gradually east across Louisiana and Mississippi but the threat of tornadoes, according to the NWS, had ended. So, they allowed the watch to expire. Strong winds are still possible with some of the stronger storms as the move east the next few hours.

Last weather update of the night.

The News Many of Us Have Been Waiting For

2012-01-25T15:55:00.000-06:00

Details here.

Tornado Threat Shifting East in Louisiana

2012-01-25T15:44:00.000-06:00

The watch is in effect until 9pm. If you are in the watch, please keep up on the weather the rest of the day.

Tornado Watch Louisiana and Southeast Texas Till 3pm

2012-01-25T10:38:00.000-06:00

Times Lapse of Lightning Hitting Aircraft at Gate

2012-01-25T10:26:00.000-06:00

As you view this, a couple of points: Note everyone backing away after the lightning bolt hits the tail. Of course, that is too late. Passenger airlines' weather monitoring has deteriorated in recent years even as weather science's ability to warn of this type of incident has improved.

Second, if you are in an aircraft struck by lighting, you'll be fine. They are designed to withstand lightning strikes. I was on a 737 enroute from Los Angeles to Denver and we were struck with no problems.

Texas Warning Summary

2012-01-25T07:58:00.000-06:00

Red = tornado warning NW of Houston. Amber = severe thunderstorm warning. Deep maroon are flash flood warnings (including Bexar Co., San Antonio). Green are various flood warnings/advisories. And, within 50 miles of a flood warning, the light maroon = high wildfire danger warning!

Data current as of 7:58am.

Tornado Watch Until 11am

2012-01-25T05:36:00.002-06:00

Another Overnight Tornado Watch

2012-01-24T22:09:00.001-06:00

This time it is Texas until 5am.

Overnight, out-of-season, tornado watches are very dangerous. Please pay attention to the weather during the night. If you have a weather radio, please make sure it is turned on and working properly.

Note: I will not be live-blogging this storm.

The Solar Storm

2012-01-24T21:38:00.002-06:00

From the Wall Street Journal online:

Delta Air Lines Inc. said Tuesday that it was rerouting some transpolar flights between Asia and the U.S. to avoid the impact of the largest solar storm in almost a decade.

The Atlanta-based carrier said some flights to Detroit from Hong Kong, Shanghai and Seoul took a more southerly routing on overnight flights, though a spokesman said planes flew faster to keep schedules intact. Tuesday departures from the U.S. were expected to follow similar routes.

The solar storm has been the topic of a great deal of interest here at the AMS meeting (see below).

From the American Meteorological Society's Annual Meeting, Part 1

2012-01-24T20:19:00.001-06:00

Hello from New Orleans. I've never been to a scientific meeting before with Marti Gras floats passing in front of a convention center escorted by police cars.

Trying to take all of this in is like drinking from a fire hose. Still, I promised I would pass along interesting info and I'll do just that.

I do wish to comment on the overwhelming response to the "Poor Journalism" post below. Wow. Thousands have read it and I've received dozens and dozens of emails. For the record, I did submit a comment to ABC News and I hope they will correct the record.

And, without being self-serving: If you know a journalist, or anyone else, who is skeptical of storm warnings, please recommend Warnings: The True Story of How Science Tamed the Weather. It is an easy, non-technical read that will explain how the warning system works and the rapid, live-saving progress we have made.

Now, back to the AMS meeting.

There was an interesting presentation on a story first broken on this blog, the lack of warning when the tornado struck the St. Louis Airport on Good Friday evening, 2011. The presenter was Andrew Freedman of the Washington Post's Capital Weather Gang. Andrew wrote a two part story about the fiasco in St. Louis.

Andrew filled us in on some new details:

When the airport finally got word of the tornado (from an employee calling from home!), they evacuated the airport (not FAA's) control tower. As this blog and the Post's series said at the time, the airport people did not tell either the people in the terminal or the airline employees!
The damage was so extensive that Terminal 1 at the STL airport is still closed.
And, as has been reported here several times, and written about in Warnings, the FAA does not consider tornado warnings to be an aviation-specific product and does not distribute them on the aviation weather communications systems! This is just as true today as when I first wrote the book!
Bottom line: Unless you are at Denver or one of the (few) other airports that have made independent contingency plans, you are at great risk if a tornado approaches.

Problems With Public Shelters

2012-01-24T09:12:00.001-06:00

A number of us have been urging public officials to take a second look at building public shelters, especially in areas where mobile homes and factory-built homes are especially common.

The Birmingham News has a great story about the difficulty of getting the bureaucracy to move -- even when the shelters are approved and funded -- can be a significant issue.

"It's heartbreaking," said Anthony Clifton, who became the county's emergency management director this past August. "Because of administrative issues, they were not in place in those communities on April 27. Now, to go through a second season without them in place is just unconscionable."

The entire story is here.

I'd like to again congratulate the News for its outstanding coverage of the 2011 tornado disasters and the issues they have raised.

An Insightful Article About American Culture

2012-01-24T01:30:00.004-06:00

We don't do politics on this blog. However, I do have a posting category for "culture" and another for "Americana." So, I am posting this article by Charles Murray on the evolution of American culture the last fifty years.

Both the Tea Party and Occupy movements sense (correctly, I believe) that "the American Dream" has come off the rails. This article, convincingly, explains why. If we understand problems, we are in a much better position to solve them.

I highly recommend Murray's article.

Note: Fixed link (I hope).

Really, Really Poor Journalism

2012-01-23T22:06:00.003-06:00

I'm now in New Orleans (2.5 hours late, thanks Continental!) for the AMS Annual Meeting and several friends alerted me to Dianne Sawyer reporting, and emphasizing, earlier this evening there was "no warning" of the overnight tornadoes (see posting below). Here is the video:

video platform video management video solutions video player

This seems to confirm my suspicion that there is a key on journalists' word processors that says "there was no warning" and they simply press that key every time they have to do a story about storms.

Dianne: There was plenty of warning, starting 21 hours before the tornado struck!

Meteorologists really face an uphill battle: The media keeps inaccurately telling people that storm after storm occurs without warning.

The public, who -- outside of the affected area -- doesn't know better, assumes the media reporting is correct.

So, when a tornado warning affects them, they don't act on it. Why should they?! The warnings are no good!

There is a really good book on this subject I could recommend to Dianne....

UPDATE: 9AM Tuesday: Another blog post with the step-by-step of the warning process in Alabama.

UPDATE II: Thank you Capital Weather Gang for the link.

The Warning System Saves Lives -- Again

2012-01-23T18:52:00.000-06:00

The image above is a screen capture from a CNN video summarizing the tornadoes that occurred last night and this morning from Arkansas to Alabama. At the very beginning of the video, a man describes being in the basement followed by the tornado striking his home. There was a reason he was in the basement: The often-maligned storm warning system.

The map below was posted on this blog at 7:42am yesterday. It depicts the forecast location of tornadoes (colors are relative probabilities) and hatched = F-2 or greater tornado potential.

NWS Storm Prediction Center

Here is the preliminary map showing where the tornadoes (red) occurred. I believe when the damage surveys are complete there will be tornadoes added.

NWS Storm Prediction Center

Perfect? No, but for 12 hours before the tornadoes occurred and for well out-of-season, it did its job to alert people that major weather was on the way. The watches were out well in advance of the first tornadoes.

I'm worried that we are going to have another big tornado season in 2012. Now is the time to prepare.

Storm Season is Starting Early in the South

2012-01-23T14:46:00.000-06:00

Storm season is already in full swing in the south and just around the corner for the rest of the nation. If you want to be fully prepared for tornado season, Mike's book WARNINGS contains valuable information that can save your life in the event of severe weather. Click here to check it out.

The time to act is before a tornado roars through your neighborhood. Just like having an emergency fire drill in place in your home, it is also advisiable to have a plan for surviving severe weather. This past week the world has watched the tradgedy unfold surrounding the Italian shipwreck, while witnessing the sad conquesnses of not being prepared in the event of an emergency. Mike has made saving lives his mission in life with that being the core reason behind all he does Please take time tonight to plan for an emergency with your family so that everyone is prepared and knows what to do in the event of a tornado and you will be glad you did.

TSA and Senator Rand Paul Incident

2012-01-23T14:37:00.000-06:00

I got some disagreement with my Tweet (sent while I was at Wichita's Mid-Continent Airport awaiting a flight!) on this subject, so let me clarify:

Sen. Rand Paul was detained by the TSA today. When that made the news, the TSA immediately responded with,

"We treated him like everyone else we 'process.'"

Wrong again, TSA!

You know that thing you swore to defend (all federal employees take the oath), the Constitution? It says, in Article 1, Section 6, referring to Members of the Senate and House of Representatives,

They shall in all Cases, except Treason, Felony and Breach of the Peace, be privileged from Arrest during their Attendance at the Session of their respective Houses, and in going to and returning from the same; and for any Speech or Debate in either House, they shall not be questioned in any other Place.

Now, you and I may or may not like this (I have my concerns about our legislators being exempt from too many laws), but it is the supreme law of the land.

This is why I have great concerns about the TSA and its ever-growing mission creep (searching cars, buses and trains). Even when it gets to HQ level (as the Sen. Paul incident did), they either don't care about, or are oblivious to, the constitutional issues their behavior raises. To me, the trend is disturbing.

What a Great Job With the National Anthem...

2012-01-23T11:43:00.001-06:00

...in the rain. I thought Kristin Chenoweth did a marvelous job at the start of the NFC Championship Game.

Because of the tornado situation, I didn't want to blog about this yesterday evening.

It was a great thrill meeting her when she was on her book tour.

Damaging Tornado in Alabama

2012-01-23T09:08:00.002-06:00

Via James Spann and several of my Facebook friends:

Here is the conventional radar (top) with a hook echo and debris ball and the simultaneous Doppler display of the major tornado near Birmingham. The lower display shows a strong rotational wind "couplet."

Here are a couple of early photos of the damage. According to The Birmingham News, the worst damage is near Oak Grove, Center Point, Clay, and Trussville.

Cross your fingers, but -- so far -- no reports of loss of life in these major nighttime tornadoes. That is likely due, in part, to the outstanding forecasts made by the Storm Prediction Center and my local TV meteorologists and the NWS throughout the affected regions.

UPDATE: I'm sorry to report that CNN is now reporting two deaths with the 3:30am tornado. While a horrible tragedy for the families and friends of the victims, that is a very low number for a tornado that occurs in the middle of the night.

UPDATE II: Video from CNN here. AccuWeather coverage here.

This Morning's Tornado Watch

2012-01-23T07:10:00.000-06:00

Here is the current, and likely last, tornado watch of the day. Several tornadoes -- with damage -- have already been reported.

Below is a map of storm reports since late yesterday afternoon. Red = tornado reports. Blue = damaging wind reports. Green = large hail reports. There will likely be more added because of the nighttime nature of this tornado outbreak.

And, severe weather is possible over Texas tomorrow.

On My Way to American Meteorological Society's Annual Meeting

2012-01-23T06:20:00.000-06:00

I'll post and tweet any interesting information.

Last Update for the Night

2012-01-22T22:25:00.001-06:00

Unfortunately, I have to post my last update of the night.

Here is the radar at 10:22pm. The purple polygons are tornado warnings:

Here is the storm overview as of 10:27pm:

This is 10:26pm. Red = tornado warning. Amber = severe thunderstorm warning with damaging winds the greatest threat. North of the Ohio River, there is a greater threat of hail along with the wind.

A new tornado watch, but with the primary threat being damaging thunderstorm winds, will almost certainly be issued and will continue during the night. Please keep up on local weather conditions!

10:13pm Update

2012-01-22T22:18:00.002-06:00

Damaging winds reported in downtown Memphis.

Potential tornado areas at 10:13pm are indicated by arrows.

10:13pm Update

2012-01-22T22:18:00.000-06:00

Damaging winds reported in downtown Memphis.

Potential tornado areas at 10:13pm are indicated by arrows.

Tornado Warning for All of Memphis Metro

2012-01-22T22:13:00.000-06:00

Three tornadic thunderstorms indicated with arrows at 10:08pm. All of the City of Memphis now under a tornado warning. The tornado warning in NW Mississippi has been extended to the east (bottom of image).

10:05pm Tornado Update

2012-01-22T22:07:00.001-06:00

Here is the radar, with the possible tornado locations highlighted with orange arrows, at 10:05pm. The storms are moving northeast rapidly.

UPDATE: 10:07PM. At least some damage reported at West Memphis. Semi's blown across U.S. 49. That is the cell highlighted that is moving northeast.

Tornado Warning for Memphis!

2012-01-22T22:01:00.001-06:00

Tornado, likely embedded in rain, is moving rapidly northeast toward Memphis. It is with the comma-shaped radar echo (orange circle).

The tornado is near Midway Corner on this 9:59pm radar image. Take cover!!! Downtown Memphis highlighted with blue rectangle.

Tornado Warning in Tunica Co., Mississippi

2012-01-22T21:50:00.002-06:00

Very strong storm with potential tornado moving into the town of Tunica and N. Tunica. Persistent wind damage or tornado damage reported with this storm since it was in southern Arkansas. Power flashes reported, strong indication of very high winds or tornado. Radar at 9:45pm.

Second tornado warning just issued in NW Tennessee. Memphis circled. Arrow points to danger area. Storm moving NE rapidly.

Amazingly Good Forecast of Damaging Thunderstorms

2012-01-22T21:42:00.001-06:00

At 11:05am I posted this forecast of what the radar would look like at 9pm (left side of image):

And, here is the AccuWeather Regional Radar for 9pm.

A nearly perfect forecast ten hours in advance!

And, here is an infra-red satellite image of the entire line of thunderstorms:

The strongest storms have the darker cores.

Severe Thunderstorm Warning for Memphis Metro

2012-01-22T21:35:00.000-06:00

North Shelby Co., TN is under a severe thunderstorm, mainly for damaging winds.

The tornadic thunderstorm SW of Memphis about to cross the Misssissippi River (purple polygon). Radar at 8:32pm.

Meanwhile, Farther North

2012-01-22T21:32:00.001-06:00

Here is the radar plotted on top of tornado watch #6 which is in effect till 2am.

Small tornadoes may occur in this tornado watch with the main threat being damaging straight-line winds.

Severe thunderstorm warnings (amber) now extend all the way into southern Illinois. Severe thunderstorm warning issued for Shelby Co., TN (Memphis).

Twitter is Down for the Third Time Today

2012-01-22T21:27:00.002-06:00

Unfortunately, Twitter is down again. I'm continuing to post to Facebook.

New Tornado Warning into Mississippi

2012-01-22T21:23:00.001-06:00

Tornado warning for Tunica Co., MS, and, in Arkansas, Lee and Phillips Counties.

Two areas of rotation moving rapidly ENE. Take cover now!!

Three Threatened Areas

2012-01-22T21:10:00.000-06:00

Memphis circled, radar at 9:08pm The areas where tornadoes may be located are indicated with orange arrows. The storms are moving ENE.

Severe Weather Overview

2012-01-22T21:04:00.000-06:00

As of 8:59, yellow = tornado watch. Amber = severe thunderstorm warning with damaging winds possible. Red = tornado warning.

Northwest Misssissippi needs to be paying attention to the weather now. Conditions are conducive for tornadoes in that area the next few hours.

Tornadic Thunderstorms Approaching Mississippi River Counties

2012-01-22T20:58:00.002-06:00

Radar from 8:55pm. Memphis circled.

Arrows indicate possible tornado locations. Storms moving ENE. Click to enlarge image.

Possible Rain-Wrapped Tornado Moving Toward St. Charles, AR

2012-01-22T20:52:00.002-06:00

Radar at 8:50pm, location of possible tornado denoted by arrow. Storm moving ENE.

click to enlarge image

Take Cover Forrest City and Caldwell, AR

2012-01-22T20:46:00.001-06:00

Tornado will cross I-40 near Forrest City shortly. Note: Memphis at right center of image.

Multiple Reports of Tornadoes On Groud

2012-01-22T20:44:00.000-06:00

Take cover Crockett's Bluff, Mayos, Lawrenceville and St. Charles with a very dangerous storm moving ENE in eastern Kansas.

What About Western Tennessee?

2012-01-22T20:35:00.000-06:00

click to enlarge

I have circled the Memphis metro area on the 8:27pm radar image. The purple polygons are current tornado warnings. These are moving ENE at about 45-55 mph. They could affect Memphis and western Tennessee as the weather balloons this evening indicate conditions are right for tornadoes into western TN and NW Mississippi including areas west and north.

Now Four Tornadic Thunderstorms!

2012-01-22T20:21:00.001-06:00

This is from radar at 8:17pm. Four potential tornadoes, all moving ENE. Very dangerous nighttime tornadoes.

click to enlarge

Here is an overview of watches and warnings.

Red = tornado warnings. Amber = severe thunderstorm warnings. Yellow = tornadoes watches.

Western Tennessee should start paying attention to these storms!

Three Danger Areas

2012-01-22T20:11:00.000-06:00

Radar from 8:08pm. Three danger areas, all highlighted with arrows and moving ENE. Click to enlarge image. Very dangerous situation.

Two Tornado Warnings

2012-01-22T20:06:00.000-06:00

Immediate threat to Coy, AR--moving toward Humnoke (second tornado situation this evening). Radar from 8:03pm.

Tornado farther north threatening Fredonia, AR.

Tornado near Wright, AR

2012-01-22T19:54:00.000-06:00

Now, a third tornadic supercell in Arkansas. This potential tornado is near Wright. It is moving rapidly to near Tucker. Take cover now!

2 Hooks = 2 Likely Tornadoes

2012-01-22T19:44:00.004-06:00

Arrow shows likely location of tornado moving ENE.

Farther south, a second, "donut" tornado signature is also moving ENE toward Funice. This is the storm with the damaging tornado near Fordyce.

Update at 7:30pm

2012-01-22T19:30:00.007-06:00

@7:36pm: I suggest taking cover in Coy and Humnoke, AR with the storm moving ENE. Take cover in Bison, AR, that storm also moving ENE.

@7:39pm: At least one person reported trapped in tornado damage in Fordyce, AR. (see posting below).... damage now reported "throughout the town." 7:45pm.

Here are two areas of rotation at 7:28pm, both circled, in Arkansas. Take cover in these areas!

The tornado watch is being extended northward until 2am. Here is the plot below:

Donut = Likely Tornado Location

2012-01-22T19:11:00.000-06:00

Little Bay, Fordyce, and other towns in the purple polygons should take immediate safety precautions. There may be a strong tornado approaching. The "donut"-shaped echo (arrow) WSW of Little Bay may be a tornado.

From the Storm Prediction Center for East Half of Arkansas

2012-01-22T19:06:00.000-06:00

We don't see language like this often:

HIGH CONFIDENCE IN SUSTAINED/LONG-TRACKED
   SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING SIGNIFICANT TORNADOES.

Please pay attention to the weather if you are in the Particularly Dangerous Tornado Watch.

Tornado Warning South of Little Rock

2012-01-22T18:54:00.001-06:00

This storm has both a hook echo...

and a rotational couplet in the Doppler wind data (two couplets circled). Take cover!! In Sheridan, AR and, farther south, in Bearden, AR.

First Tornado WARNING

2012-01-22T18:42:00.000-06:00

The red polygon is the first tornado warning of the day. Little Rock is in the center of the image. The yellow polygons are severe thunderstorm warnings.

Note: I am not going to attempt to post every warning tonight.

First Thunderstorm With Rotation

2012-01-22T18:31:00.000-06:00

This storm, near Searcy, Arkansas, on 6:27pm radar, is starting to show signs of rotation. I'm not saying there is a tornado here. There is a severe thunderstorm warning for this storm as is moves rapidly northeast.

What I am saying is that it is time to pay very close attention in Arkansas as thunderstorms approach!

Particularly Dangerous Situation Tornado Watch!

2012-01-22T17:28:00.003-06:00

Update 5:59pm. First serve thunderstorm warning out, right on cue. Scroll down for more coverage.

Particularly dangerous situation tornado watch.

Is now in effect until midnight. Please closely monitor the weather in these areas!!

Update: 5:49pm CST. Things happening quickly now. I expect the thunderstorms between Little Rock and Texarkana will become severe shortly. The earlier forecast of 6 to 6:30pm for the first severe storms is looking good. Below is AccuWeather regional radar at 5:44pm. Storms moving northeast.

Thunderstorm Update

2012-01-22T17:16:00.000-06:00

Here is the AccuWeather regional radar at 5:04pm CST. The storms are developing in Arkansas about where expected (see posting below). I'd estimate we'll see the first warnings in the 6 to 6:30pm time frame as the upper atmospheric low catches up to the unstable air in the Mississippi Valley.

Tornadoes and very high winds are the main threats. Stay tuned.

Here We Go!

2012-01-22T15:40:00.000-06:00

Thunderstorms are just beginning to develop in northeast Arkansas (purple arrow).

That small storm is in the area where the atmosphere is rapidly destabilizing, which means it is becoming more conducive to strong thunderstorm development. I have outlined, in red, the area that I believe is that highest initial risk for strong thunderstorms.

Very First Thunderstorms Starting to Form

2012-01-22T13:49:00.001-06:00

AccuWeather regional radar at 1:39pm shows the first thunderstorms just starting to form in Alabama and Mississippi:

There is no urgency yet -- these storms are not severe and I do not expect them to be for a while.

However, the ingredients for a tornado and damaging wind outbreak seem to be falling into place since I first posted on the subject this morning. So, now is a very good time to review the tornado safety rules. Just click on the link. A few of them have been modified so it is a good time review.

Of course, schools are not in session today but since we are on the subject, here are the school tornado safety rules.

After spending quite a bit of time reviewing things that didn't go as well as we would have liked in the 2011 tornado season, there is no doubt that some failed to take shelter because they don't believe tornado warnings are accurate. Well, 99% of the people killed in tornadoes in 2011 were in both a tornado watch and a tornado warning prior to the arrival of the tornado. I would like to take this opportunity to remind everyone of my book Warnings that tells how effective storm warnings can be at saving lives if the warnings are heeded. If you know someone who does not react to warnings, consider recommending or getting a copy of the book for them.

Addition: Based on some comments I am receiving, there are some not familiar with the new safety rules. Please forward this to anyone you might believe would benefit from seeing them.

Based on the latest data (2:40pm), this could be a nasty situation. Now is a good time to make sure your weather radio has a fresh battery, plan to crack a window so you hear the storm siren if you don't have a weather radio, etc.

Photo of the Dust Storm in Progress at Lubbock

2012-01-22T13:35:00.001-06:00

Via TwitPic. Photo by Connor Bradham send view Facebook. Thanks, Connor!!

Below is the dust storm on satellite at 1:15pm CST.

Update: 1:56pm CST. Radar shows thundershowers have formed east of Amarillo. No question there will be major mud balls. You might want to put your car in the garage. Car wash owners will love this.

The Blowing Dust in Texas and Oklahoma

2012-01-22T12:41:00.000-06:00

With winds gusting above 60 mph in west central Texas and drought conditions over the area, the dust is rising and flying east. Satellite image from 12:15pm CST.

The dust will spread east during the afternoon and likely reach I-35 (including DFW) by late afternoon.

Here is an animation of the dust viewed from the western weather satellite.

Meanwhile, In the Plains

2012-01-22T11:50:00.002-06:00

High winds are the problem. The light brown areas are under high wind warnings.

The maroon areas in Texas and New Mexico are wild fire warnings.

There is a risk of delays at both Dallas airports due to strong winds this afternoon. Winds are currently gusting as high as 62 mph in west central Texas.

The northern Plains have winter weather advisories. Very active weather day in the central third of the U.S.

UPDATE: Here is a color weather satellite image of the developing dust storm from the University of Wisconsin Space Science and Engineering Center. I have denoted the edges of the dust with arrows.

click to enlarge

Update on This Afternoon's and Tonight's Tornado Threat

2012-01-22T11:05:00.001-06:00

First, if you want to go to a late church service or brunch/lunch with your family, you'll be fine. Nothing happening now or through early afternoon.

AccuWeather regional radar at 10:50am CST

Here is the updated tornado threat map from the National Weather Service's Storm Prediction Center as of 10:30am CST:

Hatching represents F-2 or stronger tornadoes possible.
Colors = relative probabilities.

Another threat should be noted with this weather system and that is damaging straight-line thunderstorm winds:

The hatching is where winds of 70 mph or stronger may occur. The colors represent probabilities and they are quite high (on a relative basis).

Now is a good the to bring indoors any objects (lawn furniture, trampolines, etc.) that might blow about.

OK, so how do you plan the rest of the day? Nothing major will develop before about 2 to 3pm.

Here is an experimental radar forecast for 5pm:

NWS radar forecast, click to enlarge

There are scattered thunderstorms over northern Alabama and parts of Tennessee. Some forecasters believe they will intensify and possibly produce a tornado or two.

The more widespread action is forecast for sunset and after. Below is the 9pm forecast:

While there are still thunderstorms ahead of the main system, the line of strong storms that is expected to develop this evening from around St. Louis to west of Memphis has developed rapidly at this time. The highest tornado threat is forecast by the NWS SPC to be from 6pm until midnight.

If we go out in time one more hour, you can see a line of strong to violent thunderstorms near the Mississippi River that will sweep east during the night.

If you live in the threatened areas outlined above, I urge you to keep up on the weather starting around mid-afternoon.

Last Night's Aurora

2012-01-22T07:58:00.002-06:00

An incredible photo from Norway is here.

First Major Tornado Threat of 2012

2012-01-22T07:42:00.000-06:00

The map above, from the NWS's Storm Prediction Center, outlines the areas where tornadoes are possible today and tonight. The hatched area is where strong tornadoes (i.e., ≥F-2 intensity) are most likely to form.

If you live in these areas, please pay attention to the weather later today.

I say later today because nothing is occurring now or will occur in the next few hours. AccuWeather regional radar shows nothing ominous as of 7:40am CST. I'll have some updated posts later today.

New Tornado Watch Now. Major Threat Tomorrow?

2012-01-21T12:00:00.000-06:00

Another tornado watch has been issued in the Southeast. See map below.

Tomorrow, there is a very significant threat of tornadoes and damaging winds in the hatched area. Please monitor the weather if you live in these areas.

More Attacks on TV Meteorologists and Free Speech: In South Africa

2012-01-21T09:52:00.001-06:00

Now, a bill to punish forecasters who differ from the government forecasts -- even if the forecast is correct.

As written, the South African Weather Service Amendment Bill would affect not just TV weathermen and online weather sites but also community-based weather services. First offenses would be punished with a fine or up to 5 million rand (about $630,000) or five years in jail. The fines and jail time would be doubled for subsequent offenses.

Details are here.

As I have said before on this blog: This whole "political correctness" movement directed toward meteorologists could have some very ugly long term consequences that might eventually extend far beyond our profession.

Consider this: Don't you find it odd that meteorologists -- the scientists most familiar with that atmosphere -- are the ones being taken to task (see two postings down) for not believing in 'global warming'? Could it be there is something wrong with the IPCC/Al Gore hypothesis rather than the scientists?

Strong Thunderstorms Possible Today and Tomorrow

2012-01-21T09:09:00.001-06:00

The yellow areas represent locations where thunderstorms with large hail (≥1"), damaging winds (≥ 58mph) and, perhaps, a few tornadoes may occur.

Today

Sunday

Please keep an eye on the weather in these areas.

Please Support These Broadcast Meteorologists

2012-01-21T08:33:00.001-06:00

Someone named Brad Johnson has published a piece at a web site called "Think Progress Green" attempting to intimidate television meteorologists that do not share his views on global warming. I'm not linking to the article because I find it repugnant.

On more than one occasion (see here, for example), I have posted -- in full -- articles expressing views that differ from mine. I never delete on-topic, respectful comments that differ from mine. And, multiple times, I have linked to articles with differing opinions. That is how I, and our readers, learn.

Science should always be striving to learn the truth about how our world works. Science is often messy with passionate people on both sides. That is how it should be.

If you happen to live in one of the markets where one or more of the blacklisted meteorologists works, I hope you will offer them your support, regardless of your beliefs pertaining to global warming and climate change.

Note: I bumped this back up to the top Saturday morning.

Overnight Tornado Watch

2012-01-20T22:44:00.001-06:00

Tornado watches in the overnight hours always concern me because people are typically not paying attention to the weather. This tornado watch is in effect from now until 5am due to rapidly developing thunderstorms.

Here is the AccuWeather regional radar at 10:35pm. Compare it to the radar in the posting below when I first wrote about this threat.

This will be the last update on this situation tonight. Please monitor local weather information.

Threat of Overnight Strong Thunderstorms and Possible Tornadoes

2012-01-20T22:15:00.000-06:00

I would rather keep the post supporting the blacklisted meteorologists at the top of the blog, but there is a potentially serious weather situation developing overnight. The outlined area below has a chance of strong thunderstorms and, maybe, tornadoes overnight.

As of 10:10pm, radar shows thunderstorms starting to develop in these areas.

Please monitor local media during the night for potential watches and warnings.

Major Weather Pattern Change?

2012-01-20T18:01:00.001-06:00

For most of December and January, the wind flow in the upper atmosphere has been from ~~east to west~~ west to east across North America as shown with the thin black lines on the 18,000' wind map from this morning:

The deep purple is the extraordinary cold (even for winter) in Canada.

The 10-day forecast from the European Center for Medium Range Forecast shows a major change in pattern very wet weather in the West and the potential for some of the very cold air to come south in about 14 days.

Stay tuned.

The Sun Never Sets on the AccuWeather Forecast

2012-01-20T10:16:00.000-06:00

While I am on the commercial side (B2B) of AccuWeather's operations, I am proud of what we have accomplished with AccuWeather.com the leading source of weather information on the web.

The map below represents the location of each smart phone, worldwide, that requested weather information from us in a 24-hour period last July.

We continue to improve the usability (37 languages) and quality of our worldwide forecasts. There will be additional improvements over the next couple of months.

Congratulations to my teammates on the digital media side of our business.

"Would People Interested in Aviation Like 'Warnings'?"

2012-01-19T20:11:00.000-06:00

On the flight from Washington, D.C. to Houston this evening, I was asked if a person with a general interest in aviation would like my book, Warnings: The True Story of How Science Tamed the Weather.

Based on the reviews, I believe the answer is clearly yes. There are several chapters surrounding how wind shear crashes -- once the most common cause of airline accidents -- have been completely eliminated by weather science and, especially, by courageous Dr. Ted Fujita. There is even a chapter about the drama surrounding the litigation after the crash; probably the most important litigation in aviation history.

Warnings is about people, history, and weather. It is not a dreaded "science book." As one reviewer put it, Warnings makes meteorologists the most unlikely heroes in modern literature.

If you'd like to sample the style of writing, the first chapter is here. Give it a read. I believe you'll enjoy it.

Warnings is available in hardcover and for Kindle and Nook.

"Worst Case" = Nothing Happens

2012-01-19T06:05:00.002-06:00

Here is the Headline from the Huffington Post:

There is only one problem with the gloom and doom article: Nothing is happening. Here are the world temperatures since 1990:

If the straight-line relationship between carbon dioxide concentrations and temperatures really existed, then temperatures should reaching record levels. Instead, temperatures peaked in 1998 and have been flat to down ever since. Seems like there is a lot of "explaining" to do.

If you would like to read a summary of my scientific beliefs on global warming, please click here.

"There are a Certain Amount of People in Long-Haul Markets Willing to Pay Extra to Get There Quickly, Even Though it Takes a Long Time"

2012-01-18T17:53:00.000-06:00

Says Bob Cortelyou of Delta Airlines in this evening's online Wall Street Journal. I think that is a good way to wrap-up today's airline and airport coverage on the blog today.

Worse Than ORD Terminal F, EWR Concourse A or IAH Concourse B

2012-01-18T16:27:00.000-06:00

It seems that airports are the blog's theme of the day. Fox News tells this story of the passengers of a British Airways flight who were awakened at 3am by two announcements telling them they were going to ditch at sea.

So, I guess there are worse places to land than those terminals.

By the way, I was on a plane that made an emergency landing (i.e., evacuated the plane in the middle of the runway with fire trucks and ambulances surrounding us). The crew made all of the announcements during that incident. Since British Airways has mistakenly played these recorded announcements before, perhaps they should go back to the crew handling emergencies.

If True, This Would Be Good News

2012-01-18T12:32:00.000-06:00

Much-improved battery storage that could be used make wind and solar energy less impractical.

My Favorite U.S. Airport

2012-01-18T10:35:00.000-06:00

Should have included this in the posting below.

Which U.S. airport is my favorite? Easy: Harrisburg, PA. Friendly people (even the TSA is very professional in my experience), good services, easy to get around.

The Worst Airline Terminals

2012-01-18T07:17:00.000-06:00

USA Today published an article about the best and worst airline terminals in the world.

Here are my nominees for the worst:

3. Houston Bush Terminal B. Dark with perpetual chaos. Employees call it "the ghetto."

2. Newark's Terminal A (mentioned in the article). Old, shabby, and rude about says it all.

1. -- the worst -- Chicago O'Hare Terminal F. As travel writer Joe Brancatelli so aptly describes it, "it is where the Fall of Saigon is reenacted daily." Walking outside in the pouring rain and snow with no cover, total inability to get a flight off on time at the advertised gate, rude people, nowhere to sit.

Notice something in common? All belong to United Continental Airlines. UA is my favorite airline to fly. But, they really, really need to do something about these three terminals.

AccuWeather's International Forecasts

2012-01-18T01:11:00.000-06:00

If you haven't been on AccuWeather.com lately, just wanted to let you know that earlier this month we made some changes that further increase the accuracy of our international forecasts. Check it out!

Major Weather Pattern Change

2012-01-17T18:54:00.001-06:00

After six weeks of nearly completely dry weather, very heavy rains are expected in the Northwest over the next five days.

The pink on the map below = winter storm warning. Data as of 7pm CST from National Weather Service.

Two Areas of Strong Thunderstorms

2012-01-17T14:44:00.000-06:00

AccuWeather Regional Radar, 2:34pm

The area of storms in West Virginia (arrows) may have damaging winds.

The area of storms in the South (purple oval) may have strong to damaging winds and large hail. A tornado cannot be ruled out in the area indicated below where there is a "slight" (actually, "elevated) risk of severe thunderstorms.

Oddest Headline of the Week

2012-01-17T14:26:00.000-06:00

As the author of a book about great advances made in storm warnings, in part by NOAA, not sure why our President would be "blaming" Nixon for it.

Record Low Number of Lightning Deaths in 2011

2012-01-17T04:44:00.000-06:00

Out of the all the bad weather news in 2011, one notable success story emerges: lightning deaths were lowest in the 71-years of record keeping. Just 26 people were killed by lightning in 2011, which is amazing considering the frequency of violent severe weather outbreaks across the U.S.

Data from NOAA and story from the Washington Post's Capital Weather Gang. I do not have an explanation as to why -- with so many violent thunderstorms this year -- we had record low lightning deaths.

Let's just be grateful and hope the progress continues.

"Are We Holding a New Ice Age at Bay?"

2012-01-16T12:25:00.001-06:00

...asks the Wall Street Journal. In other words, is the increased CO2 in the air holding temperatures up and actually averting the disastrous "global cooling" predicted in the 1970's?

As we have discussed on this blog a number of times, the answer may well be yes.

"Open Access to Environmental Data" Would Be a "Perversion"

2012-01-16T05:28:00.000-06:00

Last Wednesday, I wrote about the evasion of Freedom of Information laws and other shenanigans by the usual cadre of pro-global warming advocates under the guise of science. In the posting, I wrote:

Is this the behavior of people who are confident in their position?

So, I'm not surprised that this nonsense continues -- as recently as last week.

Steve McIntyre, who I think is worthy of a Pulitizer Prize for his investigative reporting, documents more attempts to hide data and keep the work of the pro-global warming International Panel on Climate Change secret.

As I said in the original posting: The replication of scientific results is an absolutely essential part of the scientific method. If results are not reproducible, they are not science.

While I disagreed with some of the early results of the IPCC's fifteen years ago, I respected the process. It has since devolved into a largely closed advocacy group that uses sloppy science to achieve its results. My expectations for their newest report -- due out later this year -- are extremely low.

Skeptic Wins 'Global Warming' Bet: No Warming Occurred

2012-01-15T13:50:00.000-06:00

If the global temperature didn’t go up in the next few years, “there will be some explaining to do.”

I often point out that all four of world temperature indexes demonstrate that world temperatures peaked in 1998 and have been down to flat since then.

As a result of a program on BBC Radio, three years ago pro-global warming scientist Dr. James Annan made a bet with skeptic David Whitehouse that there would not be a record in world temperatures during the next three years. At the time, many pro-global warming scientists, including Annan, were forecasting that very thing with self-described high confidence.

Well, the bet was awarded by the BBC Thursday: Skeptic Whitehouse won. Here is his blog post on the subject. Congratulations, David.

Now, when does the "explaining" start?

Gearing Up for Tornado Season 2012, Part 6: All Tornadoes Are Not Equal

2012-01-15T05:29:00.000-06:00

Fifty years ago, meteorologists thought that all tornadoes, more or less, were created equal. We now know that is not the case.

Without going into all of the details, we know there are at least five different ways that tornadoes can form (supercell, landspout, gustnado, squall line, and hurricane/tropical storm-related) and that we can, roughly, anticipate some limits as to tornado intensity.

The least intense type of tornado is the gustnado (photo below).

Like the whirl that forms on the edge of a canoe paddle as it is being drawn through the water, a gustnado forms as very cold air pushes through very warm air. This type of tornado might knock over your trash can or patio umbrella but it does not pose a significant threat to life or property with untied mobile homes a possible exception. Since its duration is tens of seconds, there is a growing number of meteorologists that believes we shouldn't issue warnings on them because, in addition to the low level of the threat, the gustnado will likely be gone by the time the warning gets out.

At the other end of the spectrum is the violent (F-4 or F-5) tornado such as the storms that struck Joplin and Tuscaloosa. We are beginning to have the skill to differentiate when the atmosphere might produce this type of storm.

The supercell-created tornado can produce a tornado over tens of miles or more. Even though they are less than 2% of all tornadoes, they account for the majority of deaths.

Below is a composite image of the supercell that produced the Tuscaloosa-Birmingham tornado and others.

For example, there are now two levels of tornado watches: Regular and Particularly Dangerous Situation. If the NOAA weather radio or the radio or TV announcer uses the PDS words, there is a chance of major tornadoes.

For a regular tornado watch, I suggest you start monitoring the weather when the sky darkens or thunder is first heard. No need to alter your normal routine.

With a PDS watch, I recommend you periodically check the weather for the duration of the watch. If storms (tornadic or not) are within roughly 30 minutes, I'd suggest gathering up the kids from soccer practice, bringing in lawn furniture or anything that can be blown about, and check on elderly or infirm friends or relatives. Once everyone is accounted for, I'd make sure you are 5 minutes or less from shelter.

The PDS forecasts are not perfect. One was in effect for Tuscaloosa but Joplin was under a regular tornado watch.

This spring, keep your eye out for PDS watches. It is another step forward for the users of weather science.

Potential Freezing Rain in Appalachian Region?

2012-01-14T13:15:00.000-06:00

This bears watching. The latest computer-generated forecasts are indicating a significant probability of a tenth of an inch or more of freezing rain (glaze ice) in the Appalachian region.

The forecast below is valid from 7pm Sunday until 7pm Monday:

Click to enlarge.

And, the next forecast is valid from 7pm Monday until 7pm Tuesday:

Keep in mind both of the above maps are predicting the probability of freezing rain (scale at left on each map).

If you live in these areas, please keep up on the weather as this weather system approaches

Also, more Lake Effect Snow is likely. AccuWeather has details.

Surprising News: Bill Read Retiring as Director of the National Hurricane Center

2012-01-14T11:28:00.001-06:00

My friend, Bill Read, has announced his retirement as director of the National Hurricane Center effective June 1.

Bill has done a very good job and I'm sorry to see him go.

The New McCarthyism

2012-01-14T07:25:00.000-06:00

From Anthony Watts: Ben Stein blacklisted because he does not believe in global warming.

Congratulations, Extreme Makeover Home Edition

2012-01-13T21:05:00.000-06:00

The two-hour series conclusion from Joplin was a great way to wrap-up the series.

Sobering Statistics

2012-01-13T02:56:00.000-06:00

From Impact Forecasting, LLC, just released figures:

2011 Severe Weather Losses

Total Economic Losses: $35.69 billion

Total Insured Losses: $25.31 billion

05/22/11 Joplin, MO Tornado

Total Economic Losses: ~$3 billion

Total Insured Losses: ~$1.9 billion

Filed Claims (Source: Missouri Insurance Department): 18,433

Approximately 8,000 homes, 500 commercial properties, 18,000 vehicles damaged

The Joplin figures are just staggering to me.

Hat tip: Steve Drews

And, Now: The Rest of the Story

2012-01-12T18:26:00.000-06:00

Longtime readers of this blog may find this posting of interest.

The evening of February 2, 2011, with record cold spreading south behind the "Groundhog Day Blizzard" that affected the Midwest, I wrote this blog posting. The headline is below:

That posting set off a firestorm with the pro-wind forces who said, correctly, that earlier in the day, the wind generated significant amounts of electricity.

The problem with their responses was my posting was that it went up on the blog just before 10pm and it was written in present and future tense. The amount of wind that had been generated earlier was irrelevant to what I wrote regarding the people of Texas being warned to cut back on electricity use the night of the 2nd and on the 3rd to prevent further brownouts.

I even heard from the head of the wind power lobbying group, so, to be fair, I elevated his comments to a posting of his own. I offered to retract, as Mr. Goggin demanded, if they would release the figures that actually proved my contention that little wind power would be produced that night or the next day was actually wrong. Mr. Goggin -- twice -- said he would provide the figures. He never did. Case closed.

Now, case reopened. Today, an anonymous commenter told me I should retract and provided a link to the data I requested to see (nearly a year later). Turns out I was correct after all. Take a look at the graph of Texas power. I added the data in orange and red.

Total power use is green, scale at left. The wind output is the blue line, scale at right. I believe this is the genuine data because it shows peaks of approximately 6,400 megawatts earlier on the second which is what the wind advocates claimed. However, the wind power rapidly fell off to nearly zero by the evening of the following day (orange arrow).

My post went up on the blog at the time of the red arrow. There was an uptick in wind power just after midnight, then the output rapidly fell as I contended.

Wind power did little to add to the total power available to the state of Texas late in the evening on the second and throughout the third.

Glad we could put this to rest.

8:40am CST Winter Storm Update

2012-01-12T08:40:00.000-06:00

click to enlarge

Snow is now falling in some of the Chicago suburbs and it will start at the airports shortly if it hasn't already. The temperature is now 33° but will drop into the mid- to upper 20's by noon and winds will steadily increase during the day.

Winter Storm Update

2012-01-12T06:57:00.001-06:00

Blue = winter weather advisories. Pink = winter storm warnings (the more serious condition) as of 6:45am CST. Green = flood advisories.

Currently, there are 30 minute delays at LaGuardia and Philadelphia from the rain moving through those areas. The snow has not yet reached the Chicago airports where no delays are currently reported. That will change later this morning, however.

AccuWeather regional radar at 6:50am shows snow moving toward Chicago and increasing in the Northeast.

I was supposed to change planes in Chicago late this morning and have rerouted myself through Houston to avoid major problems. You can, too, as airline waivers are in effect which allows you to change your trip or reroute at no charge.

Wind Power to Replace Boeing?

2012-01-12T03:36:00.000-06:00

As many know, Boeing made a decision to wind down its Wichita operation by the end of 2013. Boeing has been part of Wichita for 85 years and everyone here is taking it pretty hard.

As I said to one of Meteorological Musings' commenters, I'm certain Wichita will continue to grow and prosper. However, one odd idea that has been floated is to go after wind energy companies to replace the jobs lost from Boeing.

Long-time readers of the blog know that I do not believe wind energy has a long-term future except for niche uses. Now, comes a report from Great Britain that states,

A study in the Netherlands found that turning back-up gas power stations on and off to cover spells when there is little wind actually produces more carbon than a steady supply of energy from an efficient modern gas station.

The research is cited in a new report by the Civitas think tank which warns that Britain is in danger of producing more carbon dioxide (CO2) than necessary if the grid relies too much on wind.

Wind turbines only produce energy around 30 per cent of the time. When the wind is not blowing - or even blowing too fast as in the recent storms - other sources of electricity have to be used, mostly gas and coal.

Given Wichita's location at the geographic center of the U.S. and near the population center of the U.S., there are many companies that would be smart to locate here. We have great people and a wonderful standard of living with a low cost of living. Check us out!