This experiment could cost lives. That is why I am so opposed.
For the moment, let's disregard the fact that incorrectly warning people that "mass devastation" is about to occur -- with the storm then completely missing the warned area -- might cause people to disregard future warnings. That would be an indirect effect of this experiment.
It is entirely possible this experiment may cause a direct loss of life. Some weather scientists tell people in mobile homes and in other areas without shelters to get in their car and drive away from the tornado's path:
On April 14, 2012, the Wichita National Weather Service office told the people of Conway Springs, Kansas, "Debris will block most roadways. Mass devastation is highly likely making the area unrecognizable to survivors." Suppose you live in a mobile home or a house without a basement, you have heard the advice to "flee mobile homes" during tornado warnings, and you get that "tornado emergency" -- mass destruction is "highly likely" wording? So, you get in your car and flee Conway Springs.
|Map of April 14 tornadoes (from Wichita NWS) west, south and east of Conway Springs|
While weather science can do a good job of warning of a tornadoes, forecasts of movement and location are not accurate to the quarter mile nor do we have any skill at forecasting the mile-by-mile intensity of the storm. This is the crux of my objections.
I invite scientists who believe my facts are wrong to post comments.