Posts

The Marvel of Modern Meteorology

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The flooding continues and, in some places, rivers are still rising. As long-time readers know, we periodically discuss how far weather science has come and how businesses and other enterprises should use it as they would any other tool (accounting advice, legal advice, etc.). Let's take a look at March 31's flood forecast and compare it to what actually happened.  The Forecast Please note the lower map and the forecast of "more than ten inches." The upper map shows where major flooding was forecast. This was before the rains even began!   The Reality There is an amazing correlation between the forecast and the reality.  Below is a map of the current or peak forecast river stages. Purple dots are "major" or "record" flooding.  Again, an amazing correlation. With the exception of the major flooding on the Meramec River near St. Louis --  which was included in the flood forecast the next day (before the flooding began) -- the forecast is nearly perfe...

Today's Tornado Watch

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We have another tornado watch: There is already one tornado warning in effect (10:25am). Please monitor the weather in your area. 

Absolutely, Positively YES

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For my dear friends in Wichita. The city manager form of government has held us back too long. 

Global Warming: Is There Anything It Can't Do?!

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Today's Sunday fun is brought to us -- as it often is -- by the climate alarmists at Yale  I can't remember the last time I saw a caribou in one of my climatology classes, but I must have just missed her. 

What a Weird Winter It Has Been

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The Weather of April 5, 2025: Tornadoes? Yes, and for the 5th day in a row.  Severe flash flooding? Yes.  Heavy snow in west Texas. Amazingly, yes! Blue = snow, with darker blue corresponding to heavier falling snow. Amber = tornado watches. Green = flash flood warnings. Red = hail or torrential rains. The radar image is from 4:05pm. 

Flash Flood and Updated Tornado Risk Forecasts - 1:50pm

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Another day with an enhanced tornado threat. The tornado forecast below was updated at 1:50pm. The yellow, hatched area has an enhanced  risk of strong tornadoes. The brown area has a significant risk of tornadoes. Some good news: After tomorrow, this weather pattern changes and relatively few tornadoes (for the time of year) are expected next week. Dangerous flash flooding The pink area has a high risk  of flash flooding. Statistics show that a disproportionate number of deaths occur in high risk flash flood areas. Please remember the #1 cause of flood fatalities is trying to cross flooded areas by foot or by car.  The red area has an enhanced risk and the yellow area has a significant risk. 

Unusual Tornado Pattern Since January 1

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Who'd a thunk it?   California with more tornadoes than Kansas? Kansas has had one tornado so far this year while California has had four. The Great Plains' tornado count is well below average while the Midwest is running higher than average.  I suspect the pattern may begin to favor more tornadoes in the Plains after about April 15th but that is just educated speculation at this point.